The Mystics are hosting the Wings on Friday. Dallas is favored by 3.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 168.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mystics vs. Wings Preview
After two strong wins over the Valkyries and Aces to close out the first half of the season, the Mystics came out of the All-Star break and defeated the Sun on Tuesday, 92-84. Washington has now won three straight and is 7-3 over its last 10. The Mystics rank ninth in net rating and are the No. 8 seed at 15-12. They hold a 4.5-game lead over the Fire for that spot, so Washington looks well on its way to a playoff berth.
The Mystics are an elite defensive group, ranking third in defensive rating. While they have issues on the other side of the ball — ranking second-to-last in offensive rating — Washington has been better in this department recently. Shakira Austin and Sonia Citron have been great during this recent surge, both averaging 19-plus points per game in that span. Kiki Iriafen has really stepped up as well, averaging 18.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game during this stretch.
With these three clicking, the Mystics rank fourth in offensive rating and are averaging 93.7 points per game during this winning streak. Washington will look to keep its foot on the gas on Friday, but this isn’t an easy matchup against the Wings, who defeated the Mystics by 23 points in Dallas back on May 18.
The No. 4-seeded Wings are 18-10 and rank sixth in net rating this season. The team is top five in both offensive and defensive rating, and Dallas has one of the best players in the league at the helm, Paige Bueckers. The reigning Rookie of the Year is averaging 20.7 points per game and carries the third-best odds to win MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook at +900.
Like the Mystics, the Wings are 7-3 over their last 10 games, receiving strong contributions from Jessica Sheppard and No. 1 pick Azzi Fudd.
Dallas, however, is coming off a nail-biter loss to the Dream on Wednesday, 82-81. The Wings led by as many as 15 points in the second half — and while Atlanta’s comeback was impressive, a controversial late call essentially handed the Dream the win.
With 18.7 seconds left in the fourth and the Wings leading 81-77, Arike Ogunbowale was called for a flagrant-one foul due to her close-out on Allisha Gray shooting a three-pointer. Gray hit the three free throws, then sank a go-ahead jump shot on the next possession.
The Wings should be eager to get back on track after this frustrating loss. Dallas has a knack for bouncing back after defeats, as the squad is 7-2 after a loss this season.
The Wings did mop the floor with the Mystics back when these squads met in late May, 92-69, but Washington has improved dramatically since then. This should be an entertaining battle between two of the hottest teams in the league.
Mystics vs. Wings Pick, Best Bet
While the Mystics have been much better recently, the Wings are still the superior squad. Dallas should rebound with a win after its heartbreaker against the Dream.
On top of being 7-2 after a loss, the Wings are 10-5 on the road. Covering this 3.5-point spread is a different story, though, and I like backing the Mystics to cover on their home floor. Washington is a league-best 16-10 ATS and has gone 13-4 ATS as an underdog this season.
