San Francisco enters Friday at 47-62 after taking Thursday’s opener 4-1 behind Robbie Ray’s six strong innings. The Giants have won two straight and stand 5-5 across their last 10 games. They hit .248 during that span while producing a 3.68 ERA. Wednesday’s 16-run eruption against Milwaukee preceded another 11-hit performance Thursday. Daniel Susac homered, Rafael Devers collected three hits, and Bryce Eldridge added two more. San Francisco has scored 461 runs while allowing 505, creating a season-long differential that explains its place in the standings. San Diego remains 55-54 after having its four-game winning streak snapped. The Padres are 6-4 across their last 10 with a .281 average, 3.52 ERA, and positive 11-run differential. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Padres vs. Giants prediction, preview
Carson Whisenhunt brings a 2-1 record, 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 13 strikeouts, and eight walks into his fourth start. He struck out seven Angels across five innings Sunday but allowed four runs, five hits, two walks, and two homers. His changeup generated 15 whiffs, the most by any Giants pitcher on that offering during the Statcast era. Whisenhunt throws it 38.4%, followed by his 94 mph four-seamer at 36% and slider at 23.2%. Opponents have produced 88 mph contact, 41.3% hard hits, 8.7% barrels, and a .365 xwOBA. His command still forces too many favorable counts for hitters. San Diego will counter with Bradgley Rodriguez opening before Germán Márquez handles the middle innings.
Rodriguez owns a 2.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 47 strikeouts, and only two homers allowed across 46.1 innings. His 24.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate give the opener legitimate bat-missing ability. Rodriguez’s 98 mph fastball and upper-80s slider have held opponents to 87.1 mph contact and 31.4% hard hits. They have barreled only 2.5% of their balls in play against him. Márquez represents the vulnerable portion of San Diego’s plan. He owns a 5.17 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 34:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 47 innings. His last seven appearances produced a 6.04 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 30 hits, and 16 walks across 28.1 innings. San Francisco’s left-handed core should receive multiple favorable plate appearances once Rodriguez departs.
Luis Arraez gives that core one of baseball’s hottest table-setters. He owns a .327 average, 135 hits, 23 doubles, seven triples, 43 RBI, and only 21 strikeouts. Arraez is hitting .419/.438/.452 across seven games with 13 hits, six RBI, and two stolen bases. Devers follows with a .248/.319/.477 line, 22 homers, 61 RBI, 57 runs, and an .796 OPS. He is hitting .346/.419/.615 across seven games with two homers, eight RBI, four walks, and only five strikeouts. Eldridge owns 11 homers, a .353 on-base percentage, .451 slugging percentage, and 124 wRC+. His recent results remain uneven, but his barrel rate reached 25% during the past week. Susac has now homered three times across two games after beginning Wednesday without a major-league homer.
Giants vs. Padres pick, best bet
San Diego possesses dangerous right-handed answers against Whisenhunt. Manny Machado owns 23 homers, 64 RBI, and a .435 slugging percentage despite a .214 average. His recent correction has produced a .355/.375/.516 line, 11 hits, six runs, and five RBI across seven games. He also owns four homers and 12 RBI across 15 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. carries a .285/.353/.401 line with 121 hits, eight homers, 49 RBI, and 25 stolen bases. Tatis is hitting .305 with a .414 on-base percentage across 15 games. Jackson Merrill has surged to .417/.400/.625 across his last seven, collecting 10 hits in 24 at-bats. San Diego still ranks 24th with 454 runs and carries a modest .233/.310/.383 team line. Thursday produced six hits, one run, and only one hit after the fourth inning.
Petco Park’s nighttime marine air should keep routine fly balls inside the yard, placing greater importance on traffic and bullpen depth. San Diego owns the second-ranked bullpen with a 3.32 ERA across 434 innings. Mason Miller has a 0.79 ERA, 49.4% strikeout rate, and zero homers allowed through 45.2 innings. Adrian Morejon carries a 3.14 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. However, Randy Vásquez covered 4.2 innings Thursday and will offer little help behind Márquez. San Francisco’s bullpen carries a 4.32 ERA, although Erik Miller, Keaton Winn, and JT Brubaker all own ERAs below 3.20. The underdog owns the hotter offense and the clearer route into the opponent’s soft middle innings.
Best bet: Giants ML (+124), playable through +110
Projected score: Giants 5, Padres 4
Best bet: Giants (+125) vs. Padres
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