Facing off as part of tonight’s 15-game MLB slate, the Philadelphia Phillies will open up a series against the Baltimore Orioles. This interleague matchup is the first and only series between these two teams this season. This will be a battle of inexperienced pitchers as Andrew Painter and Brandon Young take the ball for their respective squads.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Orioles enter as narrow -119 favorites and hold -195 odds on the +1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Phillies hold -102 odds of getting the outright victory, with the run total set at 8.5.
Phillies vs. Orioles prediction, preview
There have been some significant ups-and-downs for the Phillies already this season. They limped to a 9-19 start, leading to Rob Thomson being fired and a spark sent through the organization. Philadelphia looked to right the ship, entering the All-Star break with a 54-43 record, but have faced some similar struggles of late. The Phillies have gone just 3-9 since returning from the All-Star break, and they have lost seven of their last eight. They were most recently swept by the Miami Marlins, who entered that series on a 12-game losing streak. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 42-67 to the run line, and the game total 46-58-5 to the run total.
Andrew Painter has been called back up to the major leagues and will be making his first start since June 17th. The rookie was viewed as a foundational prospect of the franchise, but struggled when plugged into the initial starting rotation this season. Painter has a 1-8 record, a 7.06 ERA, a 1.662 ERA, 14 home runs allowed, and 53 strikeouts tallied across his first 65.0 innings pitched.
Pitching has not been the only issue on this Phillies team. At the plate, they are slashing a collective .236/.303/.400 with a .703 OPS. Philadelphia ranks 24th in hits, 18th in runs, eighth in home runs, and has struck out the seventh-most times of all teams in the MLB. Brandon Marsh leads the team with 107 hits, along with 16 home runs and 47 RBI, earning his first All-Star appearance as a result. Trea Turner adds 106 hits of his own, although he leads the MLB in errors in the field. Kyle Schwarber has tallied a National League-best 33 home runs and 62 RBI this year. Bryce Harper leads the team with 64 RBI, along with 22 home runs of his own. Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
The Baltimore Orioles enter tonight’s matchup with a 53-56 record, which slots them in fourth place in the American League East. They have gone 7-5 since returning from the All-Star break. On the season overall, the Orioles have gone 56-53 to the run line, and the run total is 57-49-3 to the over/under.
Brandon Young will get the start for Baltimore tonight, his 18th of the season and 30th of his career. The right-hander enters with an 8-2 record, a 3.13 ERA, a 1.290 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, and 80 strikeouts tallied across his 97.2 innings pitched. Derek Hill is the lone player on the Phillies’ roster who has faced Young and walked in his lone at-bat.
The Orioles are slashing .237/.321/.394 with a .715 OPS. Baltimore ranks 22nd in the league in hits, 12th in runs, 15th in home runs, and has tallied the fourth-most strikeouts in the league. Pete Alonso leads the team with 102 hits on the season, along with 22 home runs and 67 RBI. Taylor Ward is the lone other player to record 100+ hits, and leads the American League with 84 walks along with his seven home runs and 30 RBI. Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo combine for 32 home runs and 85 RBI, while Leody Taveras, Jackson Holliday, and Tyler O’Neil also play notable roles.
Phillies vs. Orioles pick, best bet
The Phillies are in a rut and feel closer to full implosion than getting back on track. Bryce Harper has publicly called for reinforcements ahead of the trade deadline, and both Dave Dombrowski and Don Mattingly have sent some veiled shots at their star. Philadelphia has flaws in their starting pitching staff, bullpen, and outfield production. My lean is toward the Orioles taking care of business and getting the victory in this matchup.
However, my best bet for tonight’s matchup is for the game total to go over the 8.5 run total. There should be significant concerns about the expected production from Andrew Painter, and Brandon Young is more vulnerable than his raw stat profile indicates.
Young is posting a 3.13 ERA on the season, well below the 6.24 ERA he posted last year. But he has allowed 21 home runs across his 29 career starts. Young has allowed three or more earned runs in seven of his 17 starts on the year, including four of his past nine.
But the biggest driver in the expectation of runs in this matchup is Andrew Painter being on the mound. The rookie struggled greatly in his first go in the majors, with his 7.06 ERA and 1.9 home runs per nine innings a clear concern. Painter has not escaped a start without at least one earned run conceded and has given up four or more earned runs in seven of his 14 outings. This includes 17 earned runs allowed across just 11.2 innings pitched in his final three starts before being sent back down to the minor leagues. The 23-year-old did not exactly shine down in the minor leagues, posting a 4.56 ERA across his five starts in AAA, including as many as seven earned runs in a start.
If the Phillies had any other legitimate option on the pitching staff, they almost certainly would have kept Painter down in the minors. But the pressure is on ahead of the trade deadline, and Painter has been forced back into the rotation against an Orioles team that ranks 12th in the league in runs tallied. Philadelphia’s bullpen has not been any more encouraging, with Jhoan Duran being the lone reliable member of the relief crew. The Phillies are tied for the seventh-highest bullpen ERA on the season, so the outlook does not improve much if Painter is kept on a short leash.
Count on both offenses to pull their weight in this matchup and for the 8.5 run total being too low. Expect the Orioles to lead the charge and get to Painter early, and lead the way to clearing this scoring total. The Phillies still have a lineup loaded with production, even if they are in a bit of a lull. They are going to need to score at a high rate to have a chance in this matchup, and expect the pathway to over 8.5 runs to be clear in this matchup.
Best bet: Game Total Over 8.5 (-120)
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