Friday is baseball night, and with pivotal weekend series just beginning and the trade deadline coming up on Monday, there will be plenty of scrutiny on tonight’s 15 games. Because all but one of them begin after 7 p.m., 13 are available as part of DraftKings’ featured MLB DFS contest.
With hundreds of players in action, there are plenty of value options to be found. Here are my three favorites from tonight’s action:
- Diamondbacks SP Mitch Bratt ($5,300) at Guardians
- Tigers 1B Spencer Torkelson ($3,800) at Athletics
- Brewers OF Luis Lara ($3,500) at Angels
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
SP Mitch Bratt, Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians, $5,300
Based on his MLB production alone, Bratt shouldn’t be a realistic option even at his price point, given that he’s produced zero or negative FPTS in two of his four starts and hasn’t managed more than 8.5 FPTS in a game. However, MLB isn’t the only level at which he’s pitched this season, and in 52.1 innings for Triple-A Reno, he registered a 2.41 ERA. He made starts for the Aces on June 30 and July 5, giving up just six hits across eight scoreless innings. Plenty of players with a similarly strong Triple-A resume end up figuring it out in the majors, and there’s no reason to suggest Bratt won’t.
He’s had to navigate some very difficult matchups in his first few starts in MLB, including the back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, the Athletics at hitter’s paradise Sutter Health Park, and the white-hot Washington Nationals, but this Guardians team is comparatively easy. Cleveland ranks dead last in OPS for the season and just 20th since the All-Star break, and it’s scored the second-fewest runs. Additionally, the Guardians have been even worse against left-handed pitchers, hitting just .222 against southpaws. Bratt has been much better on the road, giving up no more than two runs in any of his MiLB outings away from Greater Nevada Field.
1B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers at Athletics, $3,800
It’s somewhat stunning that Torkelson, a former first overall pick, falls into the unofficial range of a value option in DFS contests, but he really hasn’t had a great season, posting negative-0.2 WAR and hovering around the Mendoza Line all season. However, Torkelson is coming off of a great series against the Baltimore Orioles, recording double-digit FPTS in two of three games, and he averaged 8.3 FPTS per game against the Athletics in the teams’ prior series. Torkelson can be a bit boom-or-bust, as he pairs an 89th-percentile barrel rate with a 16th-percentile whiff rate, but he’s been boom often enough recently to justify the cost.
He should have the opportunity to boom against Jeffrey Springs ($5,800), who’s been atrocious lately for the free-falling Athletics. Springs has recorded negative FPTS in three of his last four appearances, seeing his ERA balloon to 6.23, and he’s allowed an .891 OPS to righties. Additionally, he’s pitched to a 6.79 ERA at Sutter Health Park, and he’s backed up by a bullpen with an eye-popping 7.92 ERA since the All-Star break. Springs likes to throw four-seamers to righties, and Torkelson has a solid .555 xSLG against lefty four-seamers.
OF Luis Lara, Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels, $3,500
Lara, a 21-year-old Venezuelan, has temporarily taken over the starting job in right field with Sal Frelick ($2,900) on the Injured List, and it doesn’t seem as if he’ll be relinquishing it any time soon. He’s had at least 16 FPTS in three of his past five games and is averaging 7.6 FPTS per game while slashing .280/.345/.420 across his last 10 games. It’s not exactly like this came out of nowhere, either; Lara is the Brewers’ fourth-ranked prospect and the world’s 67th-best overall, and he had a .902 OPS in Triple-A. At 5-foot-7, he might never have elite power, but basically every other metric indicates he’ll be an MLB star for years to come.
Lara has a friendly matchup tonight against Ryan Johnson ($6,100), an Angels right-hander who is coming off of a 3.1-inning, eight-hit, eight-run (negative-6.5-FPT) disaster. Johnson hasn’t shown much at the MLB level in his first 56.1 innings, recording a 7.35 ERA across two seasons, and he doesn’t have an elite Triple-A track record to fall back on. Johnson has just a 21st-percentile expected batting average, and Lara would rank in the top decile in that stat if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Lara has only had three career at-bats ending in a right-handed splitter, but his lone hit went for a triple.
