Closing down Friday’s three-game WNBA slate, the Indiana Fever will face off with the Portland Fire.
This is the third and final matchup between these teams this season. They have split the first two matchups, with the Fever producing a 90-73 win in the first game. These two sides last faced off on May 30, which resulted in a 100-84 win by the Fire.
The Fever enter as 7.5-point road favorites with -325 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire are +260 underdogs, with the game total set at 187.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever-Fire matchup.
Fever at Fire Preview
The Indiana Fever enter the matchup with an 18-10 record on the season, which is tied for the fourth-best record in the WNBA. They are looking to extend a four-game winning streak and have won eight of their last 10. On the season overall, Indiana has gone 15-13 against the spread, and the game total is 18-10 to the over/under.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 23.5 points and 2.7 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 21.5 points and a team-high 7.9 assists. Clark has battled a back injury this season, but is starting to find her stride, and the team is benefiting as a result. She is listed as probable for Friday with the issues. Aliyah Boston and Monique Billings are also listed as probable, while Damiris Dantas will be sidelined. Boston contributes 17.1 points and 8.2 rebounds, while Sophie Cunningham, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 95.8 points per game. The Fever also rank first in offensive rating, third in pace, third in field-goal percentage, and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 89.8 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 12th in the league. Indiana also ranks eighth in defensive rating and eighth in opponent field-goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.
The Portland Fire sit in ninth place in the WNBA standings with an 11-17 record on the season. They enter this matchup looking to snap a three-game skid, and Portland has dropped eight of their past 11 games. The Fire are 14-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their 28 games.
Carla Leite headlines the production, averaging 15.2 points and 5.9 assists per game, while Bridget Carleton adds 13.7 points and 3.9 rebounds. Megan Gustafson — now Megan DiLeo — contributes 12.8 points per game and is coming off back-to-back 20+ point efforts. Sug Sutton and Sarah Ashlee Barker also average in double figures, although the latter will miss Friday’s matchup due to a knee injury. Sania Feagin will also miss due to a left knee injury of her own. Emily Engstler and Luisa Geiselsoder also play notable roles for Portland.
The Fire are scoring 85.3 points per game this season, which ranks 10th among WNBA teams. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, seventh in field goal percentage, and eighth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 90.9 points per game against Portland, which ranks 13th. The Fire also ranks 13th in defensive rating, 12th in opponent field-goal percentage, and seventh in opponent three-point percentage.
Fever at Fire Pick, Best Bet
It was a turbulent start to the season, but the Indiana Fever have found their stride and are back to being one of the top teams in the WNBA. Caitlin Clark was bothered by her back injury for stretches at the start of the year, and it took some time for this collective unit to gel. But Indiana has a high-octane offense that can put forth a scoring punch that will bury a team in the blink of an eye. The Fever lead the WNBA in scoring and offensive rating, while ranking in the top three in the league in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and pace.
There are fair reasons for optimism about Portland’s first season back in the league. Their level of offensive production has been especially encouraging in recent games, but their defensive issues are too much to overlook in this matchup. The Fire rank 13th in opponent points per game, 13th in defensive rating, and 12th in opponent field goal percentage. They have given up 98+ points in three consecutive games and will be tasked with trying to slow down the top offense in the league.
During the first matchup between these two teams, the Fever cruised to a 90-73 wire-to-wire win, extending the lead to as many as 26. Indiana shot 45% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc, while the Fire shot just 3-for-16 from the perimeter.
Portland had a much better performance in the rematch. The Fire tallied a 100-84 win in which they led for 89% of the matchup and extended their lead to as many as 26. Portland shot 51% from the floor and 39% from deep, while the Fever were limited to 5-for-22 shooting from outside. This was Portland’s fourth-best shooting performance of the season from the field and their eight-best three-point efficiency. Clark had her worst shooting performance of the season in this loss, being limited to just six points on 1-for-7 from the field and missing both three-point attempts.
While the continued growth of Kelsey Mitchell has changed the calculus of the Fever’s best pathway to wins a bit, Clark is still the engine responsible for running the team. The early ups and downs were directly tied to Clark failing to find her stride, with her presence and gravity being a major key to opening up all options in the offense. Not only are the Fever on a four-game winning streak, but they have covered the spread in three consecutive matchups — as well as eight of their past 12.
Expect Portland to remain competitive in the early stages of this matchup, before Indiana delivers a scoring punch that they cannot match. The Fever have looked borderline unstoppable of late and will make a clear effort to ensure this matchup is played at their desired pace. Count on Clark and company to win their fourth consecutive road game and cover the 8.5-point spread for the second time this season against the Fire.
