Baseball may be the most fickle of the major sports, especially for small-market teams. Momentum can change quickly, within a game, within a season, and within franchise history.
As a result, one of the most notable eras of Detroit Tigers baseball looks like it’ll soon come to an end, nearly as quickly as it began. Tarik Skubal rose from relative obscurity to emerge as the American League’s undisputed best pitcher, winning back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2024 and 2025, leading the league in ERA in both seasons. The flame-throwing southpaw helped deliver back-to-back postseason appearances, the Tigers’ first since 2014. Now, he’s likely made his final start for Detroit.
At 51-58, the Tigers’ playoff chances have dropped to just 14.8%, and Skubal is a pending free agent. He didn’t engage in long-term contract extension negotiations with Detroit during the offseason, receiving a one-year, $32 million deal via arbitration, and it seems as if the Tigers are unwilling to give him the record-breaking, $400 million extension he reportedly covets. With the trade deadline approaching on Monday afternoon, Detroit looks likely to trade him instead, and by opening the door to offers, the Tigers will surely get a significant return.
Plenty of teams will pursue Skubal, but only one team will land him for the remainder of the playoff run. DraftKings Sportsbook has odds on which team that will be.
Tarik Skubal next team odds
Regardless of which favorite lands him, the strong will certainly get stronger. The six teams with the shortest odds all have winning percentages of .560 or better, and the three favorites all currently lead their divisions. With the exception of the Tampa Bay Rays, each has won a playoff series within the last three seasons, and the Los Angeles Dodgers, of course, are back-to-back World Series champions. All of these teams could use Skubal, just as any team on the planet could use arguably baseball’s best pitcher, but none of them need him to win.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+115)
Scarily for the rest of the league, the Dodgers have emerged as the favorites. Los Angeles has had the best rotation in baseball this season, as its 3.38 ERA just pips out the Milwaukee Brewers’, but it is dealing with injuries. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, core members of its World Series rotation in 2025, have both missed most of the season, and Shohei Ohtani has been temporarily shut down from pitching due to knee soreness. That leaves Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the sole healthy member of the Dodgers’ 2025 playoff rotation, and adding Skubal would be insurance in case any of Glasnow, Snell, or Ohtani is able to return to the mound. If all three return and it adds Skubal, Los Angeles might have Glasnow (who had a 1.69 ERA in last season’s playoffs) come out of the bullpen alongside All-Star Justin Wrobleski and former top overall prospect Roki Sasaki in the playoffs.
Skubal wouldn’t exactly fill a weakness for the Dodgers, but he would add balance. With Snell out, Los Angeles’ second-best left-handed starter right now is Eric Lauer, who suffered through a horrendous eight appearances (six starts) before posting a 2.96 ERA through his first nine appearances (eight starts) with the Dodgers. Their top lefty, Wrobleski, can be somewhat inconsistent, as his 4.35 xERA is significantly worse than his actual 2.88 mark, and while Los Angeles has allowed the second-lowest batting average to lefties, Skubal — who allowed a .186 mark to them during his 2024 Cy Young campaign — wouldn’t hurt. The Dodgers also rank just eighth in strikeouts and seventh in walks, and Skubal has ranked in the top decile in both strikeout and walk rate in each of the past four seasons.
Plus, Los Angeles wouldn’t have to give up all that much MLB talent to get Skubal, as it has, by some metrics, baseball’s best farm system. It conceivably could hang on to every player on its current 40-man roster, though Wrobelski seems like a possible trade chip if Detroit prioritizes players with MLB experience. The Dodgers are also reportedly Skubal’s top option for free agency once he hits it after the World Series.
Milwaukee Brewers (+235)
If Los Angeles doesn’t land Skubal, it’s likely that he’ll end up joining another of baseball’s strongest rotations. The Brewers’ starters have an ERA 0.01 runs higher than the Dodgers’, but they lack Los Angeles’ depth. Jacob Misiorowski (1.58 ERA) has been tremendous and will likely win the NL Cy Young Award, but Brandon Woodruff (2.98) suffered a season-ending shoulder injury and Kyle Harrison (3.01) has missed much of the last month with forearm tightness. If Milwaukee trades for Skubal and doesn’t give up significant MLB talent to do so, it’ll enter the postseason with a rotation of Misiorowski, Skubal, Logan Henderson, and Harrison, an arguably comparable level of talent to the Dodgers’ top four. That would allow Shane Drohan to shift back into the bullpen, where he’s been far better.
Like Los Angeles, the Brewers don’t have notable weaknesses for Skubal to fill. They’ve allowed an even lower batting average to left-handed hitters than the Dodgers have, although given that Los Angeles has the second-best collection of left-handed batters in baseball and Milwaukee will almost certainly have to go through the Dodgers in order to make the World Series, adding Skubal would help. To be fair, the Brewers also rank just 11th in walks, and they haven’t been good at inducing ground balls, a relative strength of Skubal’s.
Milwaukee could get a deal done without including any player on its 40-man roster, as it has the third-strongest farm system in baseball, per FanGraphs. The Brewers should also be able to hold onto Jesús Made, a 19-year-old wunderkind currently in Double-A who’s baseball’s top overall prospect. If the Tigers require a top prospect, Milwaukee already has two 21-year-olds, shortstop Cooper Pratt and outfielder Luis Lara, with an OPS+ of 110 or better in the majors.
Tampa Bay Rays (+650)
Detroit would likely prefer not to trade Skubal to an American League team even if it has no designs on making the playoffs this season, but if it does, the Rays have emerged as a top destination. They’ve over-performed this season, leading the AL East after missing the playoffs in each of the past two campaigns, and they could use another starter. Though Tampa Bay ranks fourth in rotation ERA this season, behind the aforementioned Dodgers, Brewers, and Tigers, Shane McClanahan left his start earlier today with back tightness and Griffin Jax is perhaps best suited as a reliever. Plus, ace Nick Martinez just doesn’t quite have the track record that Los Angeles’ and Milwaukee’s pitchers do, so he might not be quite as reliable in the playoffs.
If McClanahan’s injury ends up hampering him or ending his season, the Rays are dangerously thin on left-handed pitching. Their only other southpaw starter, Steven Matz, has been horrific this season, pitching to a 6.29 ERA. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-lowest batting average to left-handed hitters, but it still hasn’t been quite as good as the Dodgers and Brewers in that aspect, and it’ll likely have to play the New York Yankees, who have some solid left-handed bats if Cody Bellinger ends up returning from his injury in top form. The Rays also have a need for a power pitcher, as they rank 10th-to-last in strikeouts.
It wouldn’t take too much for Tampa Bay to bring him in. The Rays have the best farm system in baseball, per FanGraphs, and they could part ways with one of their top catchers plus an elite pitching prospect or two without hurting their future. Tampa Bay might be less wont than Los Angeles to extend him, given its small-market status, but opportunities to win a World Series are rare, and given how wide-open the American League is this season, the Rays might never get a better one.
