Now this is quite the matchup. The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces have been at odds with one another for the entire decade and will continue that rivalry on Thursday night as the two clash in the desert. Will the Aces continue their march towards a top seed in the playoffs, or can the Liberty get back on track with an important road win?
The Aces enter as 4.5-point home favorites with -188 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Liberty are +154 underdogs, with the game total set at 181.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction, and pick for this Liberty-Aces matchup.
Liberty at Aces Prediction, Preview
It has been a trying season for the Liberty, to say the least. Injuries have dogged them the whole year. But at last, they are building some momentum. Their Commissioner’s Cup win over these same Aces at the end of June showed everybody what the Liberty are capable of at the highest level. Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones give them a platform on both ends of the floor, and Sabrina Ionescu gets healthier with each passing game. Though the maddening inconsistency persists, their highs are hard to match.
Inconsistency is a foreign concept to these Aces. They continue to roll on with A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young playing elite hoops as always. NaLyssa Smith continues to be a huge piece for this team after being vital to their second-half turnaround in 2025. Coach Becky Hammon’s system raises the floor of the team on a nightly basis. It’s a formula that has been proven many times over, and Las Vegas remains the team to beat for a reason.
This game starts with the stars. A’ja vs. Stewie is a time-tested battle, with a lot of victories for both sides. If Stewart and Jones can hold it down defensively to stop Wilson from rolling over the team, it gives them a strong chance. That also puts pressure on the Liberty backcourt to defend; this is where the absences of Leonie Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton loom large. It places a heavy burden on Ionescu and Pauline Astier to hold up defensively, which isn’t always a guarantee.
Smith is the key here. Rim finishing and paint defense are key for the Aces, and even more so in this matchup. If she can perform on both ends of the floor, they have a great chance at holding the line against the Liberty.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to pull out the win, and how should we bet this game?
Liberty at Aces Pick, Best Bet
It’s awfully tough to pick against the Aces on their home court, especially with the injury concerns for the Liberty. There’s always the chance that New York kicks things into high gear to pull another upset, but Hammon’s teams rarely lose to the same opponent twice in a row. The defending champions should handle business and inch closer to the top seed in the league.
