A tense, low-scoring affair on Wednesday culminated in a two-run, walk-off double off the bat of St. Louis’ Ivan Herrera. It was a desperately needed 3-2 win for the Cardinals (54-54), hoping to hang on in the National League wildcard race. Earning another win over the Cubs (61-47) would give the home team a boost. Chicago and MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong will attempt to earn a series win during this four-game set. Which of these old school rivals has the advantage this afternoon?
The Cardinals are favorites (-114) over the Cubs, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Chicago and St. Louis on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet today
- Cubs ML (-105): Pallante is a more reliable arm than Assad, but that may not matter in this one. The Cubs are an offensive juggernaut, carried over the past few weeks by PCA. As for the Cardinals, they’ve looked lost offensively over the past month. Back Chicago as underdogs in this one.
Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
For a quality Cubs rotation, it’ll be Javier Assad taking the mound. Through 65.1 innings pitched (eight starts), he’s posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 42 strikeouts (5.8 K/9). Those numbers, while solid, are a bit misleading. Assad sits within the ninth percentile or worse in chase rate (22.8%), whiff rate (13.6%), strikeout rate (16.0%) and hard-hit rate (48.0%). The two areas where the 28-year-old excels are limiting walks (2.2 BB/9) and inducing ground balls. That alone could be enough to prevent St. Louis’ bats from breaking this one open.
Speaking of the Cardinals, this is a top-heavy lineup. Five different Redbird hitters have a wRC+ above 100, led by All-Stars Jordan Walker (132 wRC+) and Ivan Herrera (114 wRC+). However, this group hasn’t been particularly great as a unit this season. The team is 17th in runs scored (474), 22nd in home runs (112) and 25th in OPS (.694). St. Louis has scored an MLB-worst 30 runs over its last ten contests coming into today’s matchup. Over 11 career meetings with the Cardinals (37.2 IP), Assad has posted a 2.63 ERA. That includes a 4.2-inning, scoreless performance back on July 5th.
St. Louis will hand the ball to Andre Pallante this afternoon. While far from a superstar, the righty is putting together the best season of his five-year career. Through 20 starts (112.1 IP), he’s put up a 3.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 83 strikeouts (6.6 K/9). Much like Assad, the veteran isn’t going to rack up many whiffs. However, he does a much better job at inducing weak contact. Pallante sits at the 75th percentile or better in walk rate (6.8%), barrel rate (5.8%), hard-hit rate (33.9%) and ground ball rate (55.5%). During his most recent outing, the California native tossed seven scoreless innings against the Reds.
Pallante is an above-average arm at this point. However, for whatever reason, this matchup has given him some difficulty. The righty has a 4.34 ERA over 14 career meetings with the Cubs. He did shut down this lineup back on July 3rd, but that was preceded by a three-inning, four-run performance back in May. To boot, Chicago has one of the hottest hitters on Earth at the plate in Crow-Armstrong. The outfielder is slashing .284/.416/.630 with six home runs and six steals over his previous 22 games. That includes a two-run jack during the tenth inning of Wednesday’s contest. As a unit, this Cubs offense is third in runs scored (560), tenth in homers (134) and fourth in OPS (.755).
Best Bet: Cubs ML (-105)
Pallante isn’t a bad arm by any means, but the gap between him and Assad today isn’t massive. In comparison, the Cubs come into this one with a far deeper, more dangerous lineup. Given how badly St. Louis has performed at the plate recently, Chicago makes sense as slight underdogs on Thursday.
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