Looking for today’s St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs betting splits? Below you’ll find the latest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline, Run Line and total betting percentages, plus where the public and sharp money are landing before first pitch.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds
| Market | Cardinals (Home) | Cubs (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -117 | -103 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-197) | -1.5 (+162) |
| Total | Over 9 (+102) | Under 9 (-123) |
St. Louis is a slight home favorite at -117 on the Moneyline, implying roughly 54% win probability. The Run Line prices the Cubs as the -1.5 road chalk at +162, while the total is set at O/U 9 with a slight lean toward the Under at -123.
DraftKings Betting Splits
| Market | Side | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cardinals | 30% | 78% |
| Moneyline | Cubs | 70% | 22% |
| Run Line | Cardinals +1.5 | 39% | 99% |
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | 61% | 1% |
| Total | Over 9 | 24% | 10% |
| Total | Under 9 | 76% | 90% |
Public Betting Trends
The public is heavily on Chicago with 70% of Moneyline tickets, but sharp money is hammering St. Louis with 78% of the handle on just 30% of bets. The Run Line shows an even more extreme signal: 99% of the handle is on Cardinals +1.5 despite only 39% of tickets, a textbook sharp indicator. The Under 9 is drawing both public and sharp consensus with 76% of bets and 90% of handle.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Stats
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Stat | Andre Pallante (STL) | Javier Assad (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-6 | 6-1 |
| ERA | 3.77 | 3.86 |
| WHIP | 1.211 | 1.117 |
| FIP | 3.80 | 5.04 |
| xFIP | 3.99 | 4.49 |
| WAR | 1.83 | -0.12 |
| K% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 5.7% |
| HR/9 | 0.80 | 1.65 |
Team Pitching Stats
| Stat | Cardinals | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 4.18 | 4.18 |
| WHIP | 1.344 | 1.264 |
| K/9 | 7.77 | 7.83 |
| K/BB | 2.29 | 2.56 |
| OBA | .254 | .245 |
Team Batting Stats
| Stat | Cardinals | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .239 | .248 |
| OBP | .315 | .340 |
| SLG | .379 | .415 |
| OPS | .694 | .755 |
| ISO | .140 | .167 |
| K% | 20.3% | 21.8% |
Key Matchup Numbers
- Sharp money flooding St. Louis: The Cardinals are drawing 78% of the Moneyline handle on just 30% of tickets, and an extreme 99% of Run Line handle on 39% of tickets. This is one of the sharpest reverse-line-movement signals on the Thursday slate, with professional bettors taking the home dog-turned-slight-favorite against heavy public Cubs action.
- Pallante outperforms Assad beneath the surface: While both starters carry similar ERAs (3.77 vs. 3.86), the underlying metrics diverge sharply. Pallante owns a 3.80 FIP and 1.83 WAR, indicating his results are earned. Assad’s 5.04 FIP and -0.12 WAR suggest significant regression is overdue, with a 1.65 HR/9 rate that signals a fly-ball vulnerability at Busch Stadium.
- Cubs rotation gutted by injuries: Chicago is without Justin Steele (elbow, D60), Cade Horton (forearm, D60), and three relievers (Harvey, Martin, Hodge) on the injured list. The rotation depth that carried the Cubs through the first half is gone, and Assad has become a placeholder rather than a frontline arm despite the shiny 6-1 record.
- Chicago’s road bats lead the charge: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.871 OPS, .265 AVG, 12 HR on the road) and Alex Bregman (.783 OPS, .277 AVG, 7 HR) anchor Chicago’s lineup away from Wrigley. Bregman’s Hits prop is set at O/U 0.5 (Over -209), with the book expecting him to reach base against Pallante’s contact-heavy approach.
- Cardinals home split leaders need to produce: Jordan Walker (.808 OPS, .287 AVG, 9 HR at Busch) and Lars Nootbaar (.870 OPS, .288 AVG) provide the offensive ceiling for St. Louis at home. Walker’s RBIs prop at O/U 0.5 (Over +149) offers plus-money upside if the Cardinals can generate traffic against Assad’s homer-prone pitching.
- Under 9 consensus across all segments: The Under commands 90% of handle and 76% of bets. Both starters feature low strikeout rates (17.7% and 16.0%), which typically means more balls in play, but Pallante’s 0.80 HR/9 and elite ground-ball tendencies could keep crooked innings off the board for Chicago.
DraftKings Player Props
- Andre Pallante Walks Allowed O/U 1.5 (Over -181 / Under +135)
- Alex Bregman Hits O/U 0.5 (Over -209 / Under +156)
- JJ Wetherholt Runs O/U 0.5 (Over +104 / Under -144)
- Nico Hoerner Singles O/U 0.5 (Over -183 / Under +132)
- Jordan Walker RBIs O/U 0.5 (Over +149 / Under -208)
- Carson Kelly Singles O/U 0.5 (Over -103 / Under -134)
DraftKings Featured Parlays
Donut Delivery (+1169)
Back these matchups to stay scoreless through the first inning on Thursday.
- TEX @ TB: No Runs 1st Inning
- KC @ MIN: No Runs 1st Inning
- NYY @ CWS: No Runs 1st Inning
- CHC @ STL: No Runs 1st Inning
Business Trip (+1417)
Stack four road favorites to win outright on Thursday’s slate.
- NY Yankees to Win (@ CWS)
- CHI Cubs to Win (@ STL)
- PIT Pirates to Win (@ CIN)
- MIA Marlins to Win (@ NYM)
Pitcher’s Paradise (+1155)
Bet on low-scoring affairs across Thursday’s pitching-friendly matchups.
- KC @ MIN: Under 9 Runs
- NYY @ CWS: Under 7.5 Runs
- CHC @ STL: Under 9 Runs
- PIT @ CIN: Under 9.5 Runs
Stat Sheet Stuffers (+766)
Back these hitters to combine for 2+ hits, runs, and RBIs on Thursday.
- Luis Arraez 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- James Wood 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Ben Rice 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
Betting Splits Summary
| Metric | Cardinals / Over | Cubs / Under |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Handle | 78% | 22% |
| Moneyline Bets | 30% | 70% |
| Run Line Handle | 99% | 1% |
| Run Line Bets | 39% | 61% |
| Total Handle | 10% | 90% |
| Total Bets | 24% | 76% |
FAQs
What are MLB betting splits?
MLB betting splits show the percentage of bets and handle (total money wagered) on each side of a market. They help bettors identify where the public and sharp money are landing before first pitch.
What is the difference between bets and handle?
Bets refer to the number of individual wagers placed on a side, while handle represents the total dollar amount wagered. A side with low bet percentage but high handle percentage suggests larger, sharper wagers.
How do betting splits identify sharp money?
When the handle percentage on a side is significantly higher than the bet percentage, it indicates that fewer bettors are placing larger wagers. This gap typically signals professional or “sharp” money, as experienced bettors tend to wager more per ticket than the general public.
Should you follow betting splits?
Betting splits are one useful tool among many. They are most informative when combined with line movement, matchup analysis, and injury reports. A large handle-to-bet discrepancy can highlight value, but it should not be the sole factor in any wagering decision.
How often do DraftKings betting splits update?
DraftKings betting splits update in near real-time throughout the day as wagers are placed. Percentages can shift significantly in the hours leading up to first pitch as sharps and the public continue to place bets.
What is the best bet for Cardinals vs. Cubs?
The sharp money indicator points toward St. Louis on the Moneyline at -117, with 78% of handle landing on the Cardinals despite only 30% of tickets. The Run Line at +1.5 (-197) shows even stronger sharp alignment at 99% handle. On the total, the Under 9 (-123) is the consensus play across both public and sharp segments, drawing 90% of handle. Pallante’s 3.80 FIP and 0.80 HR/9 give him a clear edge over Assad’s regression-prone 5.04 FIP, while Chicago’s depleted rotation (Steele, Horton on D60 IL) limits its ability to cover starts if Assad exits early.
