The college football season is quickly approaching. There is a lot of hype and build-up ahead of the 2026 season. One of the most interesting things to track this offseason is the wide-open Heisman Trophy race.
This is a breakdown of my 2026 Heisman Trophy best bets, including favorites, long shots and all the Heisman odds to monitor.
2026 Heisman Trophy Odds
Heisman Trophy Criteria
The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner and 2026 No. 1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, was 55/1 to win the Heisman heading into the 2025 college football season. There have been bigger long shots to win the award, like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, but that 55/1 number seemed like a good cut-off of candidates to discuss. There are 22 college football players within that range heading into this season.
Position
Of those 22 players, 20 are quarterbacks. It’s safe to say this has become a quarterback award. Since 2006, 16 of the 20 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks. There have been two running backs to win the award over that stretch, and both were out of Alabama. Those backs were Mark Ingram in 2009 and Derrick Henry in 2015. This year, there are no running backs with odds of 55/1 or better.
The only two players inside this odds range that are not quarterbacks are wide receivers, Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Toney. Smith was a freshman sensation at Ohio State and backed it up with an incredible sophomore season as well. Malachi Toney is coming off a remarkable freshman season, where he helped Miami get to the national title game. Smith is considered to have a real shot, with odds of 14/1. Toney, meanwhile, is much more of a longshot to win the Heisman.
Since 2006, DeVonta Smith has been the only traditional wide receiver to win the Heisman. The most recent non-quarterback to win was Travis Hunter in 2024, but his role playing on both sides of the ball made him an incredibly unique case. For a non-quarterback to win the Heisman, it would take a year with no real standout quarterbacks, along with a generationally unique player like Hunter or a record-breaking season from a player like Jeremiah Smith.
Winning
The other criterion that has become quite important is being on a winning team. The Heisman is a “regular season award,” but voting takes place during conference championship weekend. So, ballots are cast before the College Football Playoff, but in most cases, voters will know if a player is in the CFP before casting their votes. Additionally, players who are in action on conference championship weekend get one more chance to boost their stock before votes are cast.
Making the College Football Playoff is by no means a requirement to win the Heisman. Since the CFP began in 2014, eight out of 12 Heisman winners played on a team that was in the CFP. However, the first decade of the CFP was the four-team playoff, which was much harder to get into. In the era of the 12-team playoff, there could be a bigger emphasis on being on a playoff team. However, the two-year sample size is not big enough to draw any conclusions from. That being said, being on a team that is in the playoff hunt or playing on conference championship weekend is basically a requirement, barring exceptional circumstances, like with Travis Hunter or Lamar Jackson.
2026 Heisman Trophy Best Bets
Favorites
The favorites at the top of the odds board are Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Texas’ Arch Manning. Both are strong candidates, but at that price point, not worth a bet. Carr played great last season, but he was supported by the best run game in the country. Carr will need to prove that he can get to that next level without the support of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. In terms of Arch Manning, the sky is the limit for him. However, he will need to take a big jump from his level last season to this season to be a Heisman-level quarterback. Manning is more than capable of putting that season together, but I wouldn’t bet on him at this price.
The next batch of players are Oregon’s Dante Moore, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Miami’s Darian Mensah, Indiana’s Josh Hoover, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss and Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith. All of those players are between 10/1 and 14/1 to win the Heisman Trophy. The Ohio State quarterback and wide receiver could end up splitting votes and sentiment, so it’s tough to back either of them.
That leaves Moore, Mensah, Hoover and Chambliss on my list. For Trinidad Chambliss, the uncertainty after Lane Kiffin left for LSU makes him a bit less tempting to back. Darian Mensah and Josh Hoover both made big transfer moves to programs where they should thrive. However, I am going with the guy who decided to stay home for one more year, Dante Moore.
Dante Moore (+1000)
Dante Moore has had a rollercoaster of a college career, and topping it off with a Heisman Trophy would be remarkable. Moore was a highly sought-after recruit, but had a disappointing freshman season on a bad UCLA team. Moore decided to transfer to Oregon in 2024, knowing that he would be the backup to Dillon Gabriel. That move showed the maturity and long-term mindset of Dante Moore. He knew this was the program to be at to better himself and get ready for the NFL, and his decision paid off in spades.
After backing up Gabriel in 2024 and learning this system, Moore had an excellent 2025 season. He threw for over 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns, ranking 12th in the nation in yards and sixth in touchdowns. Moore also led his team to the College Football Playoff semi-finals, where they lost to eventual champions Indiana. There was a lot of speculation that Moore was off to the NFL, where he would have likely been a top-10 pick. However, Moore decided to stay for one more year at Oregon.
This decision once again shows why Moore is a guy to back. He wanted to come back to Oregon to get even better at playing quarterback and win a national title. Oregon has a title-worthy team and should be back in the College Football Playoff once again. Moore has a multitude of weapons to work with and should be able to improve on his already exceptional numbers from last season. Moore hits all the marks needed to win a Heisman Trophy. If he can just boost his game up one more level, he has a great chance of being named the best player in college football this season.
Long Shot
There are a few long shots that could be worth a bet at their respective prices. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed and Alabama’s Keelon Russell are on teams that could be contenders, both in the SEC and nationally. If they hit their ceilings, they will be in the mix for the Heisman. However, they might not hit the counting stats required to win the award.
Then, there are players like LaNorris Sellers, Demond Williams Jr. and Byrum Brown, who are extraordinary talents, but likely won’t be on successful enough teams to garner real Heisman consideration. The player who falls perfectly in the middle of those two zones for me is USC’s Jayden Maiava.
Jayden Maiava (+2500)
Jayden Maiava had a great junior season at USC. Maiava has a somewhat similar story to Dante Moore. He was a bright young freshman at UNLV and decided to move on to a bigger program, with no guarantee of being a starter. Maiava backed up Miller Moss, but saw a decent amount of action in his first season at USC. Last season, Maiava was given the reins and ran with it. He threw for 3,711 yards in 2025, the fifth-most in the country. He also finished with the second-best QBR in the nation.
Maiava has all the talent, and Lincoln Riley’s offenses are designed for quarterbacks to put up Heisman-level numbers. In his nine seasons as a head coach, Lincoln Riley has coached three Heisman-winning quarterbacks, a remarkable rate. Riley coached Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray to Heismans at Oklahoma, and then did it again at USC with Caleb Williams in 2022. If everything can match up between Riley and Maiava to improve on last year, he will be right in the thick of the Heisman race.
Ignoring the numbers and coaching, Maiava will also have the national spotlight needed to win the award. USC is one of the biggest brands in college football, but it has been a rough go of things by their standards. Lincoln Riley has yet to take a team to the College Football Playoff, even in this 12-team era. If Maiava puts up huge numbers and wins a couple of high-profile Big Ten games to take USC to the College Football Playoff for the first time, that would be a great story to support his Heisman campaign.
