Chicago reaches Wednesday at 61-46 after winning the series’ first two games by a combined 17-5. The Cubs have collected 31 hits, drawn 11 walks, and scored during 10 separate innings at Busch Stadium. Tuesday’s 17-hit outburst tied their third-highest total this season and included an 8-for-19 performance with runners in scoring position. Chicago has won four of five while scoring 38 runs during that stretch. St. Louis has dropped four of five, nine of 12, and three consecutive home games. Tuesday’s loss also pushed the Cardinals below .500 for the first time this season. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.
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Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Matthew Boyd enters at 6-1 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts. He threw seven innings of one-run baseball at Pittsburgh last Friday, allowing seven hits without permitting sustained traffic. Boyd throws his four-seamer 46.6%, changeup 27.5%, slider 15.6%, and curveball 9.8%. Opponents have produced 89.5 mph contact and a 41.8% hard-hit rate, leaving his command and sequencing central to his success. Dustin May’s 4.59 ERA badly understates his present work. He owns a 3.16 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 23.4% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 0.61 HR/9. A .333 BABIP and 65.6% strand rate explain much of the gap between his ERA and supporting indicators.
May delivered six innings of one-run baseball against Cincinnati on Friday, striking out eight around seven hits and one walk. His fastball still averages 96.9 mph, and his sinker-breaking-ball foundation has produced a 43% ground-ball rate. The Cubs represent a much tougher assignment than Cincinnati. Chicago ranks third with 558 runs and owns a .250/.341/.416 team slash with 133 homers. St. Louis has scored 471 runs while batting .239/.315/.379 with 112 homers. The Cubs also have 75 steals, creating another problem for a pitcher who occasionally allows extended innings through singles and aggressive advancement. May can miss bats, but Chicago rarely grants easy outs from the top through the seventh spot.
Alex Bregman has controlled this series with seven hits in nine at-bats, including three doubles and a homer. He is batting .314 across his last 12 games with four homers and 11 RBI. Seiya Suzuki has 12 hits, three homers, 12 RBI, and 10 runs across his last 10. Pete Crow-Armstrong is batting .285 with 23 homers and has already crossed the 20-20 threshold. His 48.2% hard-hit rate, 11.2% barrels, and 20.7-degree launch angle support the pull-side power. Nico Hoerner has reached 15 steals, while Ian Happ produced two doubles, two RBI, and a walk Tuesday. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson prevent May from coasting after Chicago’s hottest hitters.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
St. Louis retains enough right-handed force to punish Boyd’s four-seamer when he misses inside. Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 22 homers and 77 RBI, adding 13 steals and an 11.6% barrel rate. Alec Burleson is batting .285 and remains their steadiest contact hitter. JJ Wetherholt owns 15 homers, while Iván Herrera’s plate discipline lengthens innings ahead of Walker. The problem has been collective continuity. St. Louis has scored 17 runs across five games, with seven coming during its lone victory. Boyd’s modest strikeout total gives the Cardinals contact opportunities, but Chicago’s defense can erase that contact. Crow-Armstrong, Hoerner, and Swanson provide excellent range at three vital positions.
The bullpen comparison widens Chicago’s advantage. St. Louis owns a 4.40 relief ERA, while Tuesday forced four relievers to cover 7.1 innings and throw 125 pitches. Matt Svanson carries a 7.27 ERA, and JoJo Romero remains unavailable on the injured list. Chicago’s bullpen owns a 3.95 ERA despite injuries to Daniel Palencia and Hoby Milner. Jacob Webb has a 2.78 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate, while Ryan Rolison sits at 2.66. Warm conditions favor offense, although the six-mph breeze offers no pronounced directional help. May’s sharp underlying numbers discourage the run line. Chicago’s lineup depth, rested leverage arms, and current command of this series make −107 the cleaner wager.
Best bet: Cubs moneyline (-107), playable through -118
Projected score: Cubs 5, Cardinals 3
Best bet: Cubs (-105) at Cardinals
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