Looking for today’s Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies betting splits? Below you’ll find the latest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline, Run Line and total betting percentages, plus where the public and sharp money are landing before first pitch.
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds
| Market | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +144 | -175 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-118) | -1.5 (-102) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-106) | Under 7.5 (-114) |
The Phillies open as clear -175 Moneyline favorites on the road, with the Run Line set at -1.5 (-102). The total sits at O/U 7.5, with the Under slightly juiced at -114.
DraftKings Betting Splits
| Market | Side | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Handle | Phillies | 85% | 93% |
| Moneyline Bets | Marlins | 15% | 7% |
| Run Line Handle | Phillies -1.5 | 84% | 83% |
| Run Line Bets | Marlins +1.5 | 16% | 17% |
| Total Handle | Over 7.5 | 77% | 99% |
| Total Bets | Under 7.5 | 23% | 1% |
Public Betting Trends
The sharpest signal in this game is on the total, where 99% of the handle backs the Over despite only 77% of bets landing there. That 22-point handle-to-bets gap is a textbook sharp indicator. On the Moneyline, professionals are also loading up on Philadelphia, with 93% of money flowing to the Phillies compared to 85% of tickets.
Marlins vs. Phillies Stats
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Stat | Ryan Gusto (MIA) | Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 4.50 | 3.31 |
| WHIP | 1.324 | 1.169 |
| FIP | 3.58 | 2.92 |
| xFIP | 4.33 | 2.92 |
| WAR | 0.55 | 3.53 |
| K% | 20.5% | 29.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 7.5% |
| HR/9 | 0.79 | 0.81 |
Team Pitching Stats
| Stat | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 4.07 | 4.22 |
| WHIP | 1.253 | 1.310 |
| K/9 | 8.6 | 9.9 |
| K/BB | 2.46 | 3.36 |
| OBA | .231 | .254 |
Team Batting Stats
| Stat | Marlins | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .251 | .236 |
| OBP | .326 | .303 |
| SLG | .406 | .399 |
| ISO | .155 | .163 |
| OPS | .732 | .702 |
| K% | 21.8% | 23.8% |
Key Matchup Numbers
- Luzardo strikeout upside: Jesus Luzardo carries a 29.9% K rate and 11.2 K/9 this season, and his prop is set at O/U 7.5 strikeouts (-111). Miami ranks 21.8% in team K rate, giving Luzardo a favorable matchup to push over that number.
- Home split leader: Otto Lopez leads the Marlins at home with a .324 average and .847 OPS across 219 at-bats, while Griffin Conine is slugging at a .959 OPS clip in 59 home ABs with 5 home runs.
- Road split leader: Bryce Harper paces the Phillies on the road with a .245 average, .821 OPS and 11 home runs in 188 road at-bats. His total bases prop is set at O/U 1.5 (+108).
- Schwarber illness watch: Kyle Schwarber is listed as day-to-day with an illness as of July 28. He leads Philadelphia with 13 road home runs and an .822 OPS away from home, so his absence or limited role would impact the Phillies lineup.
- Gusto’s short leash: Ryan Gusto has a 4.50 ERA across only 7 starts with zero quality starts and a 4.33 xFIP, suggesting the Marlins bullpen will be active early. Miami is already missing SPs Max Meyer (neck, D15), Adam Mazur (elbow, D60), and Robby Snelling (elbow, D60).
DraftKings Player Props
- Jesus Luzardo Strikeouts Thrown O/U 7.5 (Over -111 / Under -114)
- Ryan Gusto Strikeouts Thrown O/U 3.5 (Over -150 / Under +118)
- Bryce Harper Total Bases O/U 1.5 (Over +108 / Under -143)
- Trea Turner Total Bases O/U 1.5 (Over +113 / Under -151)
- Alec Bohm Total Bases O/U 1.5 (Over +126 / Under -168)
- Jesus Luzardo Hits Allowed O/U 4.5 (Over -143 / Under +108)
DraftKings Featured Parlays
Power Surge (+2511)
Back both sluggers to go deep in Wednesday’s action.
- Bryce Harper 1+ Home Run
- Ketel Marte 1+ Home Run
Scoops for Days (+1007)
Star first basemen each tally 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs today.
- Bryce Harper 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Pete Alonso 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Matt Olson 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Freddie Freeman 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs
Betting Splits Summary
| Metric | Marlins / Over | Phillies / Under |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Handle | 7% | 93% |
| Moneyline Bets | 15% | 85% |
| Run Line Handle | 17% | 83% |
| Run Line Bets | 16% | 84% |
| Total Handle | 99% | 1% |
| Total Bets | 77% | 23% |
FAQs
What are MLB betting splits?
MLB betting splits show how the betting public is dividing its money and wagers across the different sides of a game. They reveal the percentage of total bets (tickets) and handle (dollars) on each outcome for the Moneyline, Run Line and total.
What is the difference between bets and handle?
Bets refer to the number of individual wagers placed on a side, while handle represents the total dollar amount wagered. A small number of large wagers from sharp bettors can move the handle percentage without significantly changing the bets percentage.
How do betting splits identify sharp money?
When the handle percentage on one side is significantly higher than the bets percentage, it indicates that fewer but larger wagers are driving the action. This gap typically signals sharp or professional bettors loading up on a particular side.
Should you follow betting splits?
Betting splits are one useful tool in a broader handicapping approach. Following sharp money (large handle-to-bets gaps) has historically been more profitable than following public bets percentages alone, but splits should be combined with other research factors like matchups, injuries and weather.
How often do DraftKings betting splits update?
DraftKings betting splits update throughout the day as new wagers come in. The percentages can shift significantly in the hours leading up to first pitch as sharp bettors and late-breaking lineup news influence the market.
What is the best bet for Marlins vs. Phillies?
The Over 7.5 (-106) stands out as the sharpest play, drawing 99% of the handle on just 77% of bets. That massive gap signals professional money backing the Over against Ryan Gusto, who owns a 4.50 ERA and zero quality starts in seven outings. The Phillies Moneyline (-175) also shows sharp alignment, but the total offers more value given the lopsided handle distribution.
