Seattle improved to 53-55 by opening this series with a 7-6 victory and five solo home runs. Dominic Canzone hit two, including the decisive 414-foot drive against Alex Vesia during the eighth inning. Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Rob Refsnyder also homered, while Andrés Muñoz stranded two runners during a tense ninth. Los Angeles fell to 67-40 after Freddie Freeman and Andy Pages failed with the bases loaded during separate late opportunities. Seattle has lost three of five despite Tuesday’s eruption. The Dodgers have won four of six, with their last two losses allowing 15 combined runs. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Seattle Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Emerson Hancock brings a 6-4 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts across 105.1 innings. His 23.4% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate support a solid 3.73 FIP. Hancock returned from his bruised pitching hand with six innings of two-run baseball against Cincinnati last Wednesday. He allowed five hits, walked one, and struck out three, completing his first full start after the injury. His 89.9 mph contact and 43.6% hard-hit rate remain less convincing than the ERA. Hancock owns a 41.6% ground-ball rate and 11.1% HR/FB rate, requiring precise sinker placement against Los Angeles’ left-handed power.
Eric Lauer owns a 5-5 record, 4.83 ERA, and 52 strikeouts across 82 innings. His 6.11 FIP, 15% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate, and 14.7% HR/FB rate describe a vulnerable starter. Only 31.4% of Lauer’s batted balls stay on the ground. His four-seamer receives 44.1% usage despite an 84 Stuff+ grade and .367 xwOBA. The cutter has allowed a .354 xwOBA, while his changeup owns weak bat-missing numbers against righties. Los Angeles has won all eight of Lauer’s appearances since acquiring him, largely because its offense keeps erasing his mistakes. He allowed two homers and three runs across 5.1 innings in Philadelphia last Wednesday.
Seattle’s season-long .231 average disguises a recent offensive lift. The Mariners are batting .256 with 8.7 hits per game across their last 10. They have slugged .415 with 14 homers and 25 extra-base hits during that span. Canzone now owns a .263/.333/.530 line with 18 homers and 49 RBI. His 92.0 mph EV, 46.8% hard-hit rate, 13.8% barrels, and .361 xwOBA validate this breakout. Rodríguez homered, stole a base, and scored twice Tuesday. Randy Arozarena leads Seattle at .281 and carries 91.2 mph contact with a .354 xwOBA. Cole Young is batting .300 across his last 10, while Raleigh’s homer Tuesday offered a needed spark during a difficult season.
Mariners vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Seattle’s 89 wRC+ against left-handed pitching supplies the strongest objection to another high-scoring game. Lauer’s lack of whiffs still gives Rodríguez, Arozarena, Refsnyder, and Mitch Garver repeated contact opportunities. Canzone took both Tuesday lefties deep, including Vesia’s first homer allowed to a left-handed batter this season. Los Angeles presents an even harsher assignment for Hancock. Shohei Ohtani owns a .405 xwOBA, 93.5 mph EV, 53.5% hard-hit rate, and 16.4% barrels. He went 3-for-4 Tuesday with a homer, double, walk, and three RBI. Freeman is batting .299 with 27 doubles, while Max Muncy has 20 homers and a 133 wRC+.
Andy Pages leads Los Angeles with 69 RBI, and Tommy Edman has produced a 153 wRC+ in limited action. Kyle Tucker’s 99 wRC+ and Mookie Betts’ 90 remain disappointing, yet both extend an order with few soft landings. The Dodgers score 5.2 runs per game while batting .261/.341 with 138 homers. Seattle’s bullpen owns a 3.51 ERA, although Muñoz threw a stressful inning Tuesday and allowed three baserunners. Los Angeles carries a 3.81 relief ERA without injured closer Edwin Díaz. Vesia threw during Tuesday’s loss, while Tanner Scott may inherit another demanding save situation. Calm weather aids pitchers, but neither starter reliably converts contact into harmless outs. The over remains stronger than laying −158 with Lauer.
Best bet: Over 9.5 runs (-108), playable through -115
Projected score: Dodgers 6, Mariners 5
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Mariners o9.5 total runs (-110)
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