After finally reaching the .500 mark, the Minnesota Twins have made the AL Central race all the more interesting as the trade deadline looms. Tonight, they look to extend their winning streak to four consecutive games with the second of three outings against the Kansas City Royals, who sit last in the division. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. at Target Field.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Royals vs. Twins game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Twins prediction, preview
It’d be a misstep to call this season from the Royals anything but disappointing. They had plenty of upside and appeared poised to make some offensive improvements, but to this point, they’re just 45-59 with the MLB’s third-worst run differential at -97. Now, there’s a distinct chance they sell at the deadline. The Twins, should probably take a similar approach once trades start flying, but in a weak American League, they’re only half a game out of the Wild Card with a 54-54 record and a -26 differential of their own. Could they sneak in? Absolutely. but buying via the market may not be the right move.
For Kansas City, RHP Randy Dobnak gets his third start of the season. He’s thrown just 19 innings but has a 1.42 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, striking out 10 batters. That gives him a 12.5% K% and an 11.3% B%, though the sample size obviously remains very small. The relief staff holds the second-worst ERA in baseball at 5.25 with a 1.55 WHIP and a 7.8% K-BB%, too.
Minnesota sends ace RHP Joe Ryan (6-6) to the mound tonight. He brings a 3.38 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP into this contest. Not only that, but he also has 131 strikeouts over 114.1 IP with a 27.8% K% and a stellar 5.3% BB%. However, the Twins’ bullpen has been one of the MLB’s worst this year with a 4.99 ERA that ranks 27th, plus a 1.51 WHIP and an 8.8% K-BB%.
Looking at the lineups, the Twins hold another distinct advantage. They average 4.76 runs per game and rank 10th in OPS (.730). This is a very respectable group that gets work done at the plate, sitting 13th in ISO (.162) and 16th in homers (126). Against right-handers like they face today, they’re slashing an excellent .254/.321/.430 for a .751 OPS. It is worth noting, though, that Byron Buxton is day-to-day after dealing with hip soreness last night.
The Royals’ batting numbers are less inspiring. The OPS comes in at 19th (.709), but they post an average of just 4.19 runs per game. Power isn’t a strength, but it’s not really a weakness either at 22nd in ISO (.150) and 24th in homers (109). They’re also marginally better in the split against righties, slashing .242/.314/.396 for an OPS of .710. However, they’re still missing star Bobby Witt Jr. as he remains on the IL, taking the top piece out of the lineup again.
Royals vs. Twins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Twins as strong -205 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Royals trailing as +167 road underdogs. The run total sits at nine combined runs.
The Twins’ bullpen isn’t very good, but neither is the Royals’. Looking at the starter matchup and the bats, there’s a massive advantage here in favor of Minnesota, though. Ryan comes off a blow-up game with eight earned runs, but he was looking very good prior to that and it was surely more of a one-off than a sign of things to come. Kansas City’s hitters are a combined 19-for-83 against him, and given his status as a legit ace who will get a ton of interest via the trade market, I’m perfectly happy taking his team to cover the run line at plus value tonight.
