What do you do if you’re the Tigers?
Following yesterday’s 14-0 rout of the Orioles, Detroit sits six games below .500, but only 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The team’s +39 run differential is actually identical to the Rays’ differential, the team that happens to have the most wins of any club in the junior circuit.
However, the Tigers also employ Tarik Skubal on the final year of his contract. The back-to-back reigning American League Cy Young Award winner could fetch a king’s ransom on the trade market, if Detroit were to decide to pack it in and be sellers.
Either way, Skubal will take this mound this afternoon for what will be his final start before the deadline. Let’s preview it and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Tigers prediction, preview
It took a couple starts back off the IL to shake out the kinks, but Tarik Skubal certainly looks like himself again. In his past five outings, Skubal has pitched to a 1.48 ERA and a 1.76 FIP. It’s a span of time where the left-hander has somehow struck out 38.3% of the batters he’s faced, while also maintaining an otherworldly 8.8 K/BB ratio. Skubal’s limited opponents to a microscopic .178/.228/.290 slash line in this 30.1 inning sample, as well. He’s been himself. He’s been the best pitcher in the sport.
It’s difficult to imagine that the Orioles will be the team that knocks Skubal out of this groove, especially given the underlying narratives of the day. Not only was Baltimore shutout on Tuesday, but the club’s lineup has been pretty underwhelming in general since returning from the All-Star break. In the season’s second-half, the Orioles rank 28th in batting average, 26th in ISO (.126) and 20th in wOBA (.302). Following the addition of Pete Alonso in the offseason, this was a collection of hitters that some prominent figures in MLB media figured could be the best in the sport. That has simply not been the case — again. Baltimore has floundered since winning 101 games back in 2023. Once considered the beginning of a dynasty, the Orioles haven’t even won a playoff game. It appears were tracking on that dubious streak continuing in 2026.
If there has been a bright spot lately for Baltimore, it’s been the form of Trevor Rogers. I think we all knew some amount of regression was the the cards after the left-hander posted a stunning 1.81 ERA across 18 starts in 2025, yet Rogers’ struggles in April and May were probably extreme even for the biggest non-believer. However, things have turned around drastically in the past six weeks. Ignore the southpaw’s 4.17 ERA for 2026 as a whole, as he’s managed a sterling 1.19 ERA and a 2.40 FIP over his last six appearances. It’s a 37.2 inning span where Rogers has allowed a single home run and he’s held opponents to a modest .231 wOBA. Heck, with Rogers set to also hit free agency in 2027, he might be as likely to be moved at the deadline as the aforementioned Skubal. Time will tell.
Orioles vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-115)
These pitchers both have an ERA below 2.00 in the past month. That’s a pretty good place to start. I think it’s also worth pointing out that the Tigers own a 104 wRC+ against RHPs this season, and just a 92 wRC+ against LHPs. Rogers’ handedness should play amazingly this afternoon.
