Looking for the best WNBA player props today? For Tuesday, July 28, my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks are Shakira Austin O 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-129), Olivia Miles U 17.5 Points (-111) and Marina Mabrey U 20.5 Points (-108).
Below, I break down why each prop stands out based on projected role, matchup and recent performance.
Best WNBA Player Props Today
- Shakira Austin O 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-129): Terrific form and matchup.
- Olivia Miles U 17.5 Points (-111): Decreased role with Naphessa Collier back and blowout risk.
- Marina Mabrey U 20.5 Points (-108): Bad matchup, chance of blowout and potential for fewer opportunities.
Top WNBA Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shakira Austin O 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-129)
Austin has been dominating recently. In her last eight games, Austin is leading the Mystics with 19.1 points and 10.3 rebounds in 29.9 minutes per game. The center has posted 27+ PR in all but one of these eight contests, and during this span, Austin is shooting 50.5% from the field, and she is leading Washington with a 26.6% usage rate.
The Mystics are 6-4 in their last 10, and they are coming off a win over the defending champion Aces, so Austin’s huge role isn’t going anywhere. Tonight, she is in a perfect spot to put up another big stat line, facing the Sun, who will be without Britney Griner.
The veteran would have primarily matched up with Austin, and with Griner off the floor this season, Connecticut’s defensive rating is an ugly 111.8. The Sun are giving up 91.4 PPG with Griner inactive (11 games), and Austin should feast in this spot.
Olivia Miles U 17.5 Points (-111)
The Lynx got superstar Naphessa Collier (ankles) back for their final game before the All-Star break and the MVP runner-up from last season saw massive role right out the gate. Collier led Minnesota with a mammoth 44% usage rate in her 22 minutes of work this past Wednesday vs. the Storm.
Naturally, Miles saw a decreased usage rate when she shared the floor with Collier. In the 17 minutes these two played together, Miles garnered a 22.3% usage rate, which is a big drop from her 27.6% average for the season. As a result, Miles only scored 13 points across 31 minutes. While this is only one game of data, Collier is averaging a 24.6% usage rate for her career, so it’s safe to assume that her presence is going to hurt Miles’ usage rate going forward.
The rookie’s matchup tonight vs. the Tempo and their league-worst defense is elite, but Miles exceeding this high 17.5-point scoring line may be difficult, not just because of Collier, but because the Lynx may run the Tempo out of the gym. Minnesota is a 15.5-point favorite for this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook, and Miles seeing fewer minutes than usual is a strong possibility.
Marina Mabrey U 20.5 Points (-108)
Competing as a 15.5-point road underdog vs. the Lynx, who lead the WNBA in net rating and just got Collier back, Mabrey easily could see less work tonight if Minnesota runs away with an easy win vs. the Tempo. On top of the blowout concerns, this is a horrible matchup, as the Lynx rank second in defensive rating. Furthermore, Mabrey’s usage could see a hit tonight.
The guard is leading the Tempo with 21 PPG and a 30.7% usage rate this season, but Kiki Rice (questionable, knee) is likely to make her return tonight after getting a full practice in Sunday. Rice is averaging 12.7 PPG with an 18.3% usage rate, and in the 10 games she has played alongside Mabrey this season, the latter is averaging 18.5 PPG.
Mabrey has fallen short of 20.5 points in 5-of-10 games with Rice active, and with her on the floor, Mabrey’s usage rate drops 1.8 percentage points to 28.9%.
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