Following the All-Star break, the Mystics are hosting the Sun on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Washington is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 156.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mystics vs. Sun Preview
Tuesday will be the third time this season that the Mystics and Sun have gone head-to-head and these two clubs split the first two meetings. Washington is 14-12 and ranks ninth in net rating while Connecticut is 7-20 and ranks dead last in net rating.
These are two of the worst rated offenses in the WNBA and while the Sun are weak on defense in addition to their poor offense, ranking 11th in defensive rating, the Mystics are elite on that end of the floor, ranking third in defensive rating.
Washington is trending up right now, winning two in a row and six of its last 10. The club is coming off wins over the Valkyries and the defending champion Aces. The Mystics defeated Las Vegas in a nail-biter by one point last Wednesday, despite reigning MVP A’ja Wilson exploding for 38 points.
Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray all scored 18+ points, but Washington’s defense didn’t allow another player for the Aces to score more than eight points. Sonia Citron and Shakira Austin also got it done on offense for the Mystics. Citron finished with 20 points and eight assists, and Austin poured in 25 points.
Citron and Austin have become a compelling guard and big pairing, and Washington as a whole should be a confident group against Connecticut, but this Sun team has been playing better.
Connecticut has dropped two straight, but the team is 5-5 in its last 10, including wins over the Lynx and the Mystics. That win over Washington came on June 26th in Connecticut and the contest was a defensive battle, finishing 68-57. The Sun held Citron and Austin to just 11 and six points that night, respectively.
Bothering these two again is Connecticut’s best path to winning this game, but that might be a challenge, as Citron and Austin are both playing much better nowadays, especially Austin, as she has scored 17+ points in six of her last eight. Plus, Britney Griner (knee) will be out tonight, which significantly hurts the Sun’s defense. With the veteran off the floor, Connecticut’s defensive rating is a poor 111.8, which is 6.0 points per 100 possessions worse than with her on.
It’s also hard to have any confidence in the Sun’s league-worst offense with Griner out and the Mystics’ stout defense on the other side. Griner has been Connecticut’s main source of offense lately, scoring 19+ points in three of her last four. With her missing, Leila Lacan, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aliyah Edwards should lead the way in usage, which obviously is concerning in this matchup. With Griner inactive this season, the Sun are a brutal 1-10.
Mystics vs. Sun Pick, Best Bet
The Mystics should be riding high after beating the Aces and Washington should notch a home win over the Sun. Connecticut is just 3-10 on the road while Washington is 6-6 at home.
With Griner sidelined, the Mystics deserve to be favored by more than 6.5 points and they are a strong bet to cover. This season, Washington is 15-11 ATS, which is the second-best record in the league.
