The WNBA is back in action tonight following a break for All-Star festivities in Chicago over the weekend – on Tuesday, we get five different games across the evening. The Las Vegas Aces remain one of the title favorites and are hoping to build some positive momentum over the second portion of the season as they hunt for a top playoff seed. The Portland Fire may be far out of the picture in terms of legitimate contention, but there’s a chance the expansion franchise can perhaps find its footing to chase a postseason berth of its own down the stretch. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting preview, prediction and pick for this Fire vs. Aces game courtesy of WNBA odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Fire vs. Aces prediction, preview
The Aces are 18-8, good for the third-best record in the WNBA. However, it still feels like things could be better for the reigning champions. They largely take care of business against bad teams, but contenders have given them trouble after dropping two games against the New York Liberty and another pair against the Indiana Fever all within the last month. Now, this should be an easier matchup, especially since Las Vegas sits fourth across the league in NETRTG (+5.8) while Portland is 14th (-6.3). The Fire simply aren’t that great, but given the context of being an expansion team, an 11-16 record could be much worse.
So, the Aces are largely impressive in terms of offense. They rank second in OFFRTG and average 91.0 PPG, third most among all teams. They do so with efficiency largely across the board, leading the W with a 49.0% FG% and sitting fourth in 3P% at 35.5%, albeit on low volume from deep. It’s an inside-out offense that also takes care of the rock, ranking second in TOV% (15.1%) and AST/TO ratio as well (1.86). The other side of the ball leaves something on the board, though. The Aces are just ninth in DEFRTG and seventh in REB% (50.2%). Granted, their 5.1 blocks per game are a league high and they somewhat limit points in the paint, but the unit underachieves on that end as a whole.
Multi-time MVP A’ja Wilson continues to lead this roster, averaging a WNBA-best 26.1 points with 9.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. Jackie Young plays the role of co-star with 16.7 points and 6.8 assists per game. Chelsea Gray pitches in 12.6 points and 7.3 assists, while Chennedy Carter and Nalyssa Smith both average around 12 points per game as well.
The list of things the Fire truly do well is frankly rather short. They play a perimeter-oriented game with the third-most three-point attempts per game and are fifth in 3P% at (34.7%); a 45.0% FG% ranks seventh and isn’t bad, either. They’re also fourth in AST% (67.5%). However, the club falls 10th in PPG with 85.8 a night, slotting in at the same position in OFFRTG. The issue holding the attack back is mainly a 19.2% TOV% that falls second-to-last, ending possessions early. The defense has less going for it as well, coming in at 13th in the league in DEFRTG, 14th in REB% (47.1%) and dead last in DREB% (63.7%). We see a trend here – Portland is second worst in opponent points off turnovers and least in opponent points in the paint.
For the Fire, Carla Leite has been a clear offensive engine with 15.3 points and 6.0 assists a night. Bridget Carleton posts 13.7 points with 3.8 boards and 1.7 steals, while Megan DiLeo averages 12.6 points and 3.8 rebounds. Sug Sutton has played just three games for Portland following a midseason trade but contributes 11.3 points with 5.7 dimes, and Sarah Ashlee Barker brings 10.7 points with 4.5 rebounds.
Fire vs. Aces pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Aces as a 11.5-point favorite with -700 odds on the Moneyline. The Fire are a +484 underdog to win outright with the game total set at 179.5.
Last time these teams faced off back on July 9, the Aces won 88-80 and shot 50.8% from the field as well as 40.0% from deep. That was a very efficient outing that might typically be tough to replicate, but it’s quite possible that Las Vegas approaches similar numbers on Tuesday. The Portland defense is just not very good, and if Wilson and her teammates get after it on the boards, this game could get out of hand very quickly. This is a spot in which the Aces may be able to cover even at a pretty wide spread of 11.5. Don’t be discouraged by the fact that the Fire are 14-13 ATS and the Aces are 13-13 as well; this isn’t a matchup to overthink.
