It is a loaded slate of WNBA action as the season kicks off again after the All-Star break. Helping to close out the five games of action, the New York Liberty will take on the Los Angeles Sparks.
This is the second of three matchups between these two teams this season. They last faced off on June 21st, which resulted in a 98-87 win by the Sparks.
Looking at the odds for the second matchup, the Liberty enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -177 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks hold +145 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 183.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Liberty at Sparks matchup.
Liberty at Sparks Preview
The New York Liberty enter with a 15-12 record on the year. It has been an up-and-down season across the board. New York slipped to a 3-4 start before winning eight consecutive games, and closed the first half of the season by losing seven of its final 13. On the season overall, the Liberty have gone 10-17 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their 27 games played.
Breanna Stewart headlines the production, posting averages of 21.1 points and 8.6 rebounds. Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu each add 14.8 points per game of their own, while Jones adds a team-high 9.2 rebounds. Satau Sabally and Leonie Fiebich also average in double figures. Pauline Astir and Marine Johannes also play significant roles on the team.
The Liberty are scoring 88.5 points per game, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. They also rank fifth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 86.2 points per game against New York, which is the fifth-best rate in the WNBA. The Liberty also rank seventh in defensive rating, seventh in opponent field goal percentage, and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
The Los Angeles Sparks entered the All-Star break with a 10-16 record, which slots them in 11th place in the Western Conference. They are looking to snap a five-game losing streak and have dropped eight of their last 10. On the season overall, the Sparks have gone 11-15 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their 26 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks with averages of 23.9 points, 6.4 assists and 2.2 rebounds per game, but she has been limited to just 12 games on the season. Nneka Ogwumike adds 17.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, while Dearica Hamby contributes 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds. Rae Burrell is the lone other player to average double figures with 13.0 points per game, while Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler also play key roles.
The Sparks are scoring 88.3 points per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Sparks are conceding a league-worst 93.3 points per game. They also rank 13th in defensive rating, 14th in opponents field goal percentage, and sixth in opponent three-point percentage.
Liberty at Sparks Pick, Best Bet
Neither of these teams has gotten off to the start to the season they desired and will be looking for significant improvement after the reset at the All-Star break. The Sparks were able to secure a 98-97 win in the first matchup between these two sides in a come-from-behind victory. New York led for 87% of the matchup and extended the lead to as many as 17 points, but Los Angeles was able to outscore its opponent 55-42 in the second half to get the desired result.
My lean is toward the Liberty getting back in the win column and covering the 4.5-point spread in this matchup. They are in better form of late, and there is a caliber of talent on that team that has me believing their best basketball on the season could still be ahead of them.
But my best bet for this matchup is for the game total to go over 183.5 points. Both these teams have some notable defensive deficiencies that the other can exploit. The total finished at 195 in the first matchup between these two teams, in which each side shot 49% or greater from the field and 33% or greater from beyond the arc. 11 different players scored in double figures in the matchup.
On the wider scale of the season, the Sparks rank dead last in opponent points per game, conceding 93.3 per matchup. Their defensive rating has climbed to 13th, but there was a stretch this season where Los Angeles was producing the worst defensive rating in WNBA history. The Sparks have allowed as many as 125 points in a matchup and conceded 95+ points in 13 of their 26 games played. New York has scorers that will be capable of exploiting these problems and some defensive concerns of its own.
Expect the Liberty to look to push the tempo a bit more than normal against this vulnerable defense and attack in transition. 183.5 is a high total by WNBA standards, but on the mark based on the context of these teams. The game total has gone over in 17 of the 26 games the Sparks have played and 17 of the 27 games the Liberty have played this season. Los Angeles has also has also allowed the game total to go over in five of its seven games as home underdogs and 11 of the 16 games as underdogs overall. The game total is also 9-0 when the Liberty are road favorites and 11-2 when they are playing on the road.
Back these trends to continue and expect points to come easily in this matchup.
