The WNBA All-Star break is complete, and these teams now buckle up for the full playoff push. Five games of action will be taking place across the Tuesday slate as the season hits its stride. The Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm will be facing off for their third and final matchup of the season.
These teams first faced off on May 17th, which resulted in an 89-78 Fever win. Indiana led for 95% of the matchup and extended the lead to as many as 20 points. They also played just before the All-Star break, with the Storm coming up short in a 110-107 shootout. This was a more competitive battle, but Indiana had an offensive gear that Seattle could not match.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Fever enter as 8.5-point road favorites and hold -337 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Storm hold +263 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 183.5.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever at Storm matchup.
Fever at Storm Preview
The Indiana Fever enter with a 17-10 record on the season, which slots them at fifth place in the WNBA but at the top of the Eastern Conference. They closed the first half on a three-game winning streak, including the matchup with the Storm, and have won five of their past six. On the season, the Fever have gone 14-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 17 of their 27 games.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 23.3 points and 2.7 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 21.0 points and a team-high 7.9 assists. Clark has battled a back injury this season, but is starting to find her stride on the season, and the team is benefitting. Aliyah Boston contributes 17.3 points and 8.5 rebounds, while Sophie Cunningham, Damiris Dantas, Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles on the team.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 95.5 points per game. The Fever also rank first in offensive rating, second in pace, third in field-goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 89.6 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 11th in the league. Indiana also ranks ninth in defensive rating and eighth in opponent field goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.
The Seattle Storm have slipped to 6-23 on the season, bringing up the rear of the entire WNBA. They are looking to snap a six-game losing streak and have been in free fall since their 3-4 start to the year. On the season overall, Seattle has gone 17-12 against the spread, and the game total is 14-15 to the over/under.
Dominique Malonga headlines the production for the Storm, scoring 16.3 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Natisha Hiedeman adds 15.6 points and 4.6 assists of her own, while rookie Flau’jae Johnson adds 13.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists of her own. Awa Fam is the lone other player to average in double figures, while Jade Melbourne and Zia Cooke also play key roles.
The Storm are scoring 81.9 points per game, which ranks 12th out of the 15 WNBA teams. Seattle also ranks 13th in offensive rating, 14th in field-goal percentage, and ninth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.0 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Storm also rank eighth in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and first in opponent three-point percentage.
Fever at Storm Pick, Best Bet
The Fever cruised to an 89-78 win over the Storm in the first matchup, leading for 95% of the matchup and extending the lead to as many as 20. This was despite Indiana shooting just 24% from beyond the three-point arc. In their most recent matchup, it was a much tighter battle with both teams holding leads for 32% or more of the matchup, and the Storm successfully matching the Fever’s up-tempo offensive style. Seattle put up 107 points, which marks its highest figure in regulation this season, and the group kept the game within the +9.5 spread in the 110-107 loss.
Seattle has kept games far more competitive than you would guess off their league-worst record. While they are 6-23 straight up, the Storm have covered the spread in 17 of their 29 games. This includes covering the spread in three straight games and five of their past six, even while the losses keep piling up.
While the competitive spirit from the Storm is admirable, it feels like the Fever are just hitting their peak for the season. Indiana had some ups-and-downs in the early parts of the season, but have won three straight and five of its last six. Indiana has also covered the spread in six of the past nine games.
The Storm are more competitive than their record shows, but I don’t see them being able to replicate the level of offensive production that occurred in the previous matchup between these two teams. Seattle shot 56.6% from the field, the club’s second-best rate of the season, and 38.1% from beyond the three-point arc. They also out-rebounded Indiana 35-26 and outscored them 66-44 in the paint.
Indiana possesses the best offense in the WNBA and does an excellent job dictating the pace of the matchup. As Caitlin Clark continues to get back to full strength, expect the Fever to only look more impressive. The continued breakout of Kelsey Mitchell has only made Indiana’s offense more dynamic, and the organization has done a nice job finding the right players to complement their stars. There were some legitimate growing pains in the early stages of the season, but the Fever are back to looking like true contenders, and expect them to carry this momentum out of the break. These are two teams trending in opposite directions, so expect this to be evident in the blowout win by the Fever as their offensive firepower proves to be too much.
