After getting swept coming out of the All-Star break, the Houston Astros have now won six of their last seven games and are closing in on both the .500 mark and the AL West lead. After a shocking come-from-behind win last night, they take on the Los Angeles Angels again this evening as this series continues in Anaheim at 9:38 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. Angels game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Angels prediction, preview
The Astros have a run differential of -45 this year, far from that of a team that should realistically be in the playoff conversation. In a weak American League and an even weaker AL West, they’re still just 1.5 games out of a potential Wild Card berth despite being 53-55 on the year. And as mentioned in the intro, they’ve won six of their last seven games, starting to build some positive momentum. The Angels, on the other hand, are just 42-65 on the year with a run differential of -67. At the bottom of the division and the league, the trade deadline looms as a potential seller.
Houston starts RHP Peter Lambert (8-5) tonight in the midst of his breakout campaign. He carries a 3.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP into his 18th start of the year, also bringing 94 strikeouts over 98.0 IP. That’s good for a 23.2% K%, though he also has a below-average BB% of 9.4%. The Astros’ bullpen also ranks 18th in ERA at 4.21, though they’re third in the stat since May 1 at 3.12 with a 1.6 WHIP and a 15.8% K-BB% over the same span.
Los Angeles deploys RHP Reid Detmers (3-7). He’s turned in quality results, amassing a 4.05 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 136 strikeouts across 120.0 IP. He brings a 27.6% K% with a 7.5% BB% as well, delivering 100th-percentile breaking run value. The Angels’ relievers are 23rd in ERA at 4.40 with a 1.38 WHIP and 13.0% K-BB%. Much like their opponent, their ERA since May 1 is better with a 3.84 mark that ranks 15th.
The Astros’ bats are the better ones in this matchup with a .726 OPS that ranks 14th and 4.58 runs per game. They’re a club that relies heavily on its power, sitting fourth in ISO (.170) and third in home runs (147) with largely average plate process. Against right-handers, Houston slashes .243/.318/.416 with a .733 OPS.
The Angels are further down the leaderboard with a .703 OPS that ranks 24th, averaging 4.28 runs per game. They pace the MLB in a negative way with a 25.0% K% at the dish, but the aggression hasn’t helped the overall pop that much with the 24th-ranked ISO (.148) and 21st-most homers (116). Hitting right-handers isn’t a strength either, slashing .239/.314/.382 with a .696 OPS.
Astros vs. Angels pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists this game as a virtual toss-up. The Astros are -111 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight, though the Angels are listed at -108 to win outright at home. The run total sits at 8.5 for this one.
This might just be the most underrated pitching matchup of tonight’s slate. Lambert has been incredible this year compared to his career track record and has allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four July starts, giving up just three hits in three of those. Detmers’ game log is shakier as of late with five earned runs allowed in each of his first two July starts, but he went six shutout innings the next time out and allowed just one earned run in the following outing to get back on track. These pitchers should keep runners off the basepaths for the most part, and with Houston’s much-improved bullpen, the under on 8.5 combined runs should cash in this game.
