Amid what’s been a pretty disappointing season for a perennial playoff team in the San Diego Padres, crunch time is now. If the Padres, who have made the postseason in four of the last six seasons, want to participate in October in 2026, series like this two-game home set against the cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies are ones they need to sweep.
The opener is slated to begin tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. The starting pitching matchup will be one between Michaels, as Michael Lorenzen will start for the Rockies and Michael King for the Padres.
Let’s break down this intra-divisional showdown with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Best Bets
- San Diego Padres -1.5 (-105): Given how inconsistent San Diego has been this season and how decent Colorado’s offense looks at times, I wouldn’t ordinarily go for a multi-run win, but King is so much better than Lorenzen and the Padres’ offense has heated up at the right time.
- Ty France 2+ Hits (+214): France has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters over the last month, as he’s hitting .364 in his last 24 games. He’s posted a .508 xSLG and a .283 xBA against right-handed sinkers this season, and Lorenzen’s sinker is worse than most.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres prediction, preview
Colorado was never expected to be good this season, so the fact that the Rockies have the worst record in the NL isn’t much of a surprise. They’ve made some strides, at least; after finishing last season with 119 losses, among the most in MLB history, they’re on pace to finish 63-99 this season. In particular, Colorado has improved offensively; this season, it actually ranks fifth in OPS, although since the All-Star break, it ranks just 20th. Catcher Hunter Goodman has emerged as one of the league’s best hitters, and four different Rockies have an OPS north of .850. The issue is that, per usual, Colorado has struggled on the mound. It’s had by far the worst rotation in baseball, as Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano haven’t been great signings, and incumbent ace Kyle Freeland has continued his steady decline. The Rockies’ bullpen has been better (merely baseball’s fourth-worst unit), as converted starter Antonio Senzatela and free agency signing Brennan Bernardino have been good, but several of their other relievers have ERA’s north of 5, including closer Juan Mejia.
Meanwhile, San Diego started off hot, climbing to 31-20 on May 23 before it suffered a series of 15 losses in 22 games and went on another eight-game losing streak shortly before the All-Star break. Offensively, the Padres have been a disaster, as they rank fourth-to-last in OPS for the season as a whole despite ranking second so far in the second half. Besides Ty France, who has an .887 OPS, basically all of San Diego’s other regulars have underwhelmed, and former MVP finalist Fernando Tatis Jr. still hasn’t reached double-digit homers for the season. The Padres’ rotation has also been extremely poor, posting the fifth-highest ERA, as they haven’t had much depth at all beyond King. San Diego has still had a top-six bullpen, thanks mostly to an all-time great season by closer Mason Miller, but in order to put Miller in and ice the game, the Padres have to enter the ninth inning with a lead, and that hasn’t happened frequently this season. Depending on how the next five games go, they could conceivably either be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
San Diego should be able to feast off of Lorenzen, who’s arguably been the worst qualified starter in baseball this season. He leads all players with 141 hits conceded, giving up at least one earned run in every single start and allowing four or more earned runs eight times. There basically isn’t anything that Lorenzen does well, as he ranks in the seventh percentile in expected ERA, the fourth percentile in expected batting average, and the first percentile in pitching run value. He also has bottom-decile marks in average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate, so his weaknesses should mitigate some of the Padres’. They’ve also hit the ball pretty hard despite their mediocre offensive numbers overall, as they rank seventh in hard-hit percentage and 13th in average exit velocity. Lorenzen’s only redeeming quality is his 60th-percentile ground ball rate, and to be fair, San Diego has hit grounders at the second-highest rate. Lorenzen has also been a tiny bit better away from Coors Field, posting a more respectable 5.04 ERA on the road, and the Padres have been atrocious at home.
King should have a huge advantage in the starting pitching matchup. He’s quietly been one of baseball’s best pitchers throughout the last six seasons, recording a 3.24 ERA across 85 starts and 97 relief appearances in his career. In his 21 starts this season, King has allowed two or fewer earned runs 13 times, including in each of his last four starts. Advanced stats give him a pretty mixed profile, though; he ranks in just the 31st percentile in expected ERA but the 92nd in pitching run value. While he’s been slightly below-average in most facets of the game, ranking between the 28th and 52nd percentiles in fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and barrel rate, Colorado is both swing-happy and whiff-happy, drawing few free passes and striking out at a high rate. King has also been good at inducing soft contact, ranking in the 72nd percentile or higher in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, but it’s not like the Rockies, who have been one of the league’s softest-hitting teams, are prone to mashing it anyway. Plus, Colorado hasn’t been as effective offensively away from Coors Field, ranking just 18th in road OPS.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Diego Padres -1.5 (-105)
King has a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup over Lorenzen, and while Lorenzen’s raw numbers are partially affected by the altitude, the Rockies’ offense isn’t potent at sea level, either.
Strong Lean: Ty France 2+ Hits (+214)
France has had two or more hits in each of his past three games, and overall, he’s been seeing the ball quite well over the last month, posting a 1.132 OPS across his last 24 games and recording 13 multi-hit games across that span.
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