The AL playoff race is awfully crowded this season. Despite having disappointing seasons, both the Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers are firmly in the race, but on the outside looking in. With the trade deadline looming, these teams will be playing extra hard to convince management not to sell.
Detroit sits as a -136 moneyline favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Baltimore upset is priced at +113, and the over/under is set at nine runs.
Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Orioles vs. Tigers prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Dean Kremer steps to the bump for the Orioles. A mainstay in Baltimore’s rotation the past several seasons, a quad strain derailed his 2026 season. After making two starts in April, Kremer hit the IL and didn’t return until July 1st. This will be his fifth start after the injury layoff, and results have been mixed. Over 21 innings in those four starts, Kremer has an uncharacteristic 5.57 ERA.
A big issue for Kremer right now is the ball rising. His ground ball rate is down, and his barrel rate is up. Not the hardest of throwers, Kremer needs to stay around the knees with his pitches to survive. It’s no surprise a pitcher coming off a two-month absence is struggling to locate his pitches, but if this keeps up, it poses a threat to an Orioles team that is already hanging on by a thread.
Opposite Kremer will be young Tigers starter Troy Melton. Everyone expected Framber Valdez to be the third piece of the puzzle in this rotation alongside Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, but it’s Melton seizing that role so far. The 25-year-old holds a 1.95 ERA through 10 starts this season, and with a good mix of soft contact and strikeout stuff, there’s reason to think he can keep churning out excellent results.
Melton’s success has hinged on a cutter that is borderline unhittable. Opponents are batting .098 with a .146 SLG on that cutter this season, a pitch he throws 21% of the time. That sort of elite putaway pitch that he can throw at any time gives Melton a huge advantage. With his other pitches more than holding their own, it makes that cutter all the more lethal.
Both offenses have been solidly middle of the pack, which certainly isn’t what they hoped for. Baltimore sure made a jump in wRC+ from last season, especially due to the signing of Pete Alonso, but it hasn’t been enough to offset the struggles of their pitching staff. Detroit has slid a fair amount since last year, with regression and injuries hitting them hard. Improved results down the stretch would go a long way towards pushing these two teams towards the postseason.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Orioles vs. Tigers pick, best bet
It’s difficult to ignore the distinct advantage that Melton gives the Tigers over Kremer and the Orioles. He’s throwing the ball awfully well, and should be able to limit Baltimore’s power bats. Meanwhile, Dean Kremer is still trying to find his form, and won’t have an easy time against a lineup of smart, veteran Detroit bats.
