The playoff slog rolls on. Both the Diamondbacks and Pirates hope their seasons continue into October, and these crucial games against teams on the Wild Card bubble feel like they count double. Add in the looming trade deadline, and it feels like they count triple. Is that enough pressure for you?
Pittsburgh sits as a -136 moneyline favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. An Arizona upset is priced at +113, and the over/under is set at 8.5 runs.
Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Eduardo Rodríguez steps to the bump for the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Rodríguez continues to defy Father Time, recent history, the radar gun, and all underlying metrics. In his third season with the Snakes, Rodríguez holds a 2.64 ERA through 21 starts, and made his first-ever All-Star Game at 33 years old. It’s a sharp contrast to his first year in Arizona, where Rodríguez had an ERA over 5.00. Funny enough, Baseball Savant has his expected ERA at 5.00, and yet he continues to get outs and deliver crucial innings for a team on the playoff bubble.
You won’t see a lot of strikeout stuff on the mound when Rodríguez is out there. He’s mostly a fastball-changeup guy and mixes in a solid curveball to boot. Though he doesn’t thrive on giving up ground balls, he does a good job keeping the ball in the park, generating a lot of fly ball outs. It’s risky business, but Rodríguez makes it work.
Opposite him is Pirates starter Jared Jones. After missing the entire 2025 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jones has made a strong return to Pittsburgh’s rotation, holding a 3.72 ERA through 10 starts and 46 innings. His fastball is absolutely cooking, averaging 98.5 MPH on the radar gun. Pair that with a hard-breaking slider and a changeup that’s faster than many four-seam fastballs, he brings quite the arsenal to the table.
It’s no surprise that with that kind of stuff, Jones is a high-volume strikeout guy, but he pairs good command with it. Jones also induces a fair amount of ground balls while avoiding excessively hard contact. It all adds up to a .208 expected batting average and 3.14 expected ERA, both 85th percentile marks among starting pitchers, according to Baseball Savant. That’ll play well.
Both offenses continue to perform well. Pittsburgh has been one of the best lineups in baseball this season and can throw out a lineup with very few holes on a nightly basis. Arizona has struggled considerably at times, but they’re getting hot in July and continued to cook on Tuesday night. There is surely some potential for fireworks here.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates pick, best bet
While both offenses are doing well, this is quite the pitching matchup. Jones looks like he’s getting better with each passing start, and E-Rod continues to defy everything on the road to the best season of his career. Both starters will do well enough to keep the runs prevented before handing things over to the bullpen.
