Being on the playoff bubble right before the trade deadline is a sweaty spot. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates are tied for the final NL Wild Card spot at 55-52, only a game above the Washington Nationals. Every game of this series holds massive weight over the rest-of-season outlook for these two teams.
Pittsburgh sits as a -117 moneyline favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. An Arizona upset is priced at -103, and the over/under is set at nine runs.
Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Brandon Pfaadt steps to the bump for the Diamondbacks today. Early in the year, Pfaadt made three starts before being moved to the bullpen. Now he’s thrust back into starting duties and looks like a new man. In five starts since moving back to the rotation, Pfaadt has a 2.33 ERA in 27 innings. Most importantly, the Diamondbacks have won all five of those starts.
Pfaadt’s transformation into a full-blown ground ball pitcher plays a role in his success. As a rookie, Pfaadt has a 32.6% GB rate, at the eighth percentile among starters. He climbed to 42.2% as a sophomore and remained steady at 42.3% in his third year. This season, he’s all the way up to 51.7%, an 87th percentile mark for starters. An intentional change in his pitch mix has certainly played a role; just look at the year-over-year changes on Baseball Savant:
If Pfaadt’s turnaround is real, it can significantly change Arizona’s outlook for the rest of the season.
Opposite him is Bubba Chandler, a big arm for the Pirates. The 23-year-old moved quickly through the Pittsburgh system, and his live arm certainly played a role. Chandler’s fastball, which he throws 48% of the time, averages out at 98.6 MPH. That’s a 96th percentile mark amongst starting pitchers. Unfortunately, he doesn’t really know where the pitch is going; Chandler has one of the highest walk rates in the majors, doesn’t strike out many batters, and gives up plenty of hard contact. It all adds up to a 4.47 ERA, which isn’t what the playoff-hopeful Pirates wanted.
Arizona’s lineup has scuffled a bit this year, but things are picking up in the month of July, where the Snakes rank 12th in wRC+ as a group. They go as Corbin Carroll goes; their star outfielder has been an incredibly impactful bat once again. Unfortunately, a dropoff in production from Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo has left their lineup a bit hamstrung, as nobody else has been able to step up and make up for the lack of production.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s lineup continues to chug along. They’re fourth this season in wRC+ as a group, continuing to get strong production up and down the lineup. If Oneil Cruz can get healthy and re-acclimated while rookie Esmerlyn Valdez stays hot, nobody will want to see this team in a Wild Card series.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates pick, best bet
I’m a believer in Pfaadt’s resurgence. The shift in his game plan has already paid dividends, and his ground-ball style will play well against a Pirates team looking to yank the long ball. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks love to play small ball and make the most out of their baserunners with good situational hitting and base running. That’s the kind of formula that has given Chandler issues all season long.
