The Cubs arrive in St. Louis at 59-46 after scoring 57 runs across nine games since the break. They went 5-4 during that stretch, including Sunday’s wild 8-7 loss in Pittsburgh. Seiya Suzuki homered, Pete Crow-Armstrong tripled, and Chicago threatened through the final out. The Cubs have scored 541 runs with a .247/.339/.414 team slash and 131 homers. St. Louis enters 53-52 after dropping an extra-inning rubber match to Cincinnati. Alec Burleson collected three more hits, and Iván Herrera homered. Monday opens a four-game series carrying divisional weight and immediate scoring potential. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction, preview
David Peterson owns a 5.97 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 101 hits, 38 walks, and nine homers through 89 innings. His latest turn produced 6⅔ scoreless innings, three hits, one walk, and four strikeouts against Detroit. He has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his four starts for Chicago. St. Louis authored the exception with 10 runs across 3⅔ innings. Peterson has surrendered a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 43.3% hard-hit rate. His 6.6% barrel rate reflects a steady diet of ground balls. Double plays remain vital because his traffic rarely disappears through strikeouts.
Matthew Liberatore enters with a 5.18 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 112 hits, 38 walks, and 18 homers across 99 innings. The Angels tagged him for nine hits and five runs in 5⅓ innings last week. Liberatore has yielded a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 43.0% hard-hit rate, and .350 expected wOBA. His four-seamer has produced a .405 expected wOBA and .458 slugging percentage. He throws it nearly 32% of the time, pairing it with sinkers, sliders, curves, and changeups. The curveball can finish plate appearances. Frequent four-seam and sinker contact keeps innings alive and drives his elevated home-run rate.
Crow-Armstrong has slashed .289/.426/.658 across his last 10 games with two homers, four doubles, two triples, eight walks, and three steals. Pedro Ramirez owns a .423 average, .483 on-base percentage, and four doubles during that span. Michael Busch has hit .333/.375/.533, giving Chicago another dangerous left-handed bat against Liberatore. Suzuki has contributed three homers, 10 RBIs, and a .901 OPS. Nico Hoerner has collected 15 recent hits, while Dansby Swanson owns a .350 on-base percentage. Chicago can stretch Liberatore through walks, stolen bases, gap contact, and repeated pressure from both sides of the plate.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
St. Louis already knows how to punish Peterson. Burleson enters batting .429 with 18 hits, three doubles, and a .955 OPS across his last 10. Jordan Walker is 3-for-6 against Peterson with a homer, double, and four RBIs. Herrera gives the Cardinals another right-handed hitter capable of lifting Peterson’s sinker. Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, and Walker have each endured colder overall stretches, increasing the burden on Burleson. Relief pitching leaves both teams exposed. Chicago’s bullpen owns a 3.97 ERA without closer Daniel Palencia. St. Louis carries a 4.40 mark without JoJo Romero, reducing Oliver Marmol’s late-game flexibility.
First-pitch temperature should approach 99 degrees, with a heat index above 110 and wind pushing toward the outfield. Both starters have allowed hard-hit rates above 43%. They have also combined for 213 hits, 76 walks, and 27 homers. Those baserunners should become increasingly difficult to strand as the heat drains both starters and shortens the bullpens. Chicago owns the deeper offense, and St. Louis has already solved Peterson once. I want over 9.5 at −112, playable through −120. A move to 10 requires plus money. Ground balls and early double plays present the danger. The pitching, recent contact, weather, and bullpen availability support a 7-5 Cubs win.
Best bet: Over 9.5 (−112)
Projected score: Cubs 7, Cardinals 5
Best bet: Cardinals vs. Cubs o9.0 total runs scored (-110)
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