Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Monday night slate: Brandon Lowe, CJ Abrams and Willson Contreras.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | +346 | Merrill Kelly’s been a bit better lately, yet he remains in possession of a first percentile xERA (7.25) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (13.5%). He’s still conceding a whopping 2.15 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. Lowe only has one home run since June 28, but this is a slump-busting matchup. |
| CJ Abrams | +325 | Abrams is going to spoil Max Scherzer’s 42nd birthday. The former top prospect is slashing .397/.420/.836 with a .438 ISO in July. He’s on fire. Meanwhile, Scherzer has a 10.23 ERA over 22.0 innings. He’s surrendered 3.68 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs, and a 13.2% opponent barrel rate overall. He looks cooked. |
| Willson Contreras | +358 | Contreras has used 96th percentile bat speed (77.1) to generate a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.387) and a 95th percentile expected slugging rate (.516). He’s also simply hit 22 long balls in 400 plate appearances. Jack Perkins owns a 7.67 ERA in his seven starts, while he’s additionally surrendering 2.27 home runs per nine in those outings. Add in Sutter Health Park, and this is an east sell. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Brandon Lowe 1+ Home Run (+346)
Here’s the thing, even though Merrill Kelly has been pitching better as of late, he’s still given up at least one home run in each of his past five starts. It’s not like the numbers under the hood look any more encouraging than a couple months back, either. Kelly remains in possession of a first percentile xERA (7.25) and a second percentile opponent barrel rate (13.5%). He’s still conceding a whopping 2.15 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. It’s bleak. It also should be a perfect matchup for Brandon Lowe to break out of his recent slump. Since June 28, the veteran infielder has managed a single home run. That said, Lowe owns a .267 ISO and a 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching for 2026 as a whole. He’s due to see one go over the fence.
CJ Abrams 1+ Home Run (+325)
There’s a lot of narrative going on with Max Scherzer tonight. He’s making his first MLB appearance since June 10. He’s pitching at Nationals Park, where he spent the majority of his career. He’s attempting to show he’s got something left in the tank before the trade deadline. He’s also doing all this on his 42nd birthday. Anyone who is a baseball fan is cheering for Scherzer, yet that doesn’t change the fact that when he has pitched in 2026, it’s been disastrous. Scherzer has a 10.23 ERA over 22.0 innings. He’s surrendered 3.68 home runs per nine to opposing LHBs, and a 13.2% opponent barrel rate overall. He looks cooked. Now he’ll face a Washington squad that leads the league in long balls (156). Seems like a bad combo. Abrams or James Wood (+213) make sense in this market, though the former has juicier odds. Abrams is slashing .397/.420/.836 with a .438 ISO in July, too.
Willson Contreras 1+ Home Run (+358)
Contreras is having a very nice season in his first year with the Red Sox. The veteran has used 96th percentile bat speed (77.1) to generate a 97th percentile expected wOBA (.387) and a 95th percentile expected slugging rate (.516). He’s also simply hit 22 long balls in 400 plate appearances, the most he’s had in a single campaign since the juiced balls in 2019. Contreras will look to keep rolling at the always hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park on Monday, in a matchup with Jack Perkins. The A’s are trying to turn Perkins into a starter, but it’s not really working. The right-hander owns a 7.67 ERA in his seven starts, while he’s additionally surrendering 2.27 home runs per nine in those outings. His home park certainly doesn’t help, but either way, the Perkins rotation experiment has mostly failed to this point.
