Cleveland reaches Cincinnati at 54-53 with five consecutive losses and an offense searching for anything dependable. Tampa Bay swept the Guardians while allowing three runs across 27 innings. Cleveland managed one hit Sunday during a 1-0 loss, wasting 7⅔ brilliant innings from Parker Messick. The Guardians are 3-7 across their last 10, batting .240 while being outscored by 16 runs. Cincinnati returns home at 49-55 after completing a 6-3 road trip and winning its third consecutive series. The Reds scored three times in Sunday’s 10th inning to beat St. Louis, 5-3. They now begin a 10-game homestand near the trade deadline.
Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Guardians.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Guardians vs. Reds prediction, preview
Chase Burns enters 12-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts across 107⅔ innings. He has limited opponents to a .204 average and allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of 19 starts. Burns worked five scoreless innings against Seattle last Tuesday, surrendering three hits and two walks with six strikeouts. His last five starts have produced a 4-0 record, 3.67 ERA, and 29 strikeouts across 27 innings. The 3.16 xERA and .275 xwOBA confirm his place among baseball’s better starters. His 10.4 K/9 and 3.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio give Cincinnati control of most early innings.
Burns’ fastball-slider pairing presents a brutal assignment for Cleveland’s contact-driven lineup. His four-seamer averages 97.8 mph and receives 57.1% usage. Opponents have hit .229 with a .388 slugging percentage against it. The 91 mph slider accounts for another 37.4% of his pitches and has generated a 51.5% whiff rate. Hitters own a .145 average, .250 slugging percentage, and .201 wOBA against the pitch. Burns has finished 47.5% of slider plate appearances with strikeouts. His changeup has allowed a .474 average and .842 slugging percentage. He throws it only 5.4% of the time, leaving few chances for Cleveland to exploit that weakness.
Slade Cecconi enters 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 82 strikeouts, and 34 walks across 103⅔ innings. His last five starts produced 31 hits, 17 runs, nine walks, and 17 strikeouts across 25⅓ innings. Cecconi has completed five innings once in his last three turns. Minnesota collected seven hits, two homers, and seven runs against him last week, with four runs scoring after his departure. His 4.71 xERA, .333 xwOBA, .268 xBA, .442 xSLG, and 39.0% hard-hit rate describe sustained vulnerability. Cecconi is 0-3 with a 4.05 ERA across five career starts against Cincinnati. The Reds have collected 22 hits and 12 runs across 26⅔ innings.
Reds vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Cincinnati’s current bats line up well against Cecconi’s 26.3% four-seamer, 25.2% cutter, and 21.2% sinker usage. Sal Stewart has slashed .282/.326/.667 across his last 10 with four homers, eight RBIs, and 26 total bases. Elly De La Cruz owns a .308/.400/.564 line during that span with two homers, six walks, and three steals. Nathaniel Lowe is 10-for-33 with three homers and collected three hits Sunday. Spencer Steer has 16 homers and 40 RBIs, though his right wrist remains day-to-day after Sunday’s awkward foul-ball swing. Cleveland’s Steven Kwan has gone 17-for-36 recently. Chase DeLauter owns two homers, seven RBIs, and a .914 OPS across his last 10.
Cleveland’s 3.11 bullpen ERA creates the largest threat to Cincinnati covering two runs. Colin Holderman owns a 1.80 ERA, Cade Smith sits at 2.63 with a 2.14 FIP, and Hunter Gaddis carries a 2.94 mark. Cincinnati’s relievers own a 4.19 ERA and worked extra innings Sunday. Burns has also stopped after five innings in two of his last three starts. Great American Ball Park should open near 89 degrees with light wind and heavy summer air. Its 1.18 home-run factor magnifies Cecconi’s 15 homers allowed. Cincinnati’s -167 moneyline offers little value. I’ll take the Reds -1.5 at +124, playable to +105. Burns’ workload and Cleveland’s bullpen create the danger. Cincinnati’s power and starting-pitcher advantage support a 6-2 victory.
Best bet: Reds -1.5 (+124)
Projected score: Reds 6, Guardians 2
Best bet: Reds -1.5 (+125) vs. Guardians
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