Looking for today’s Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs betting splits? Below you’ll find the latest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline, Run Line and total betting percentages, plus where the public and sharp money are landing before first pitch.
Pirates vs. Cubs Odds
| Market | Pirates (Home) | Cubs (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -131 | +109 |
| Run Line | +157 (-1.5) | -191 (+1.5) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (+101) |
Pittsburgh opens as a moderate home favorite at -131 on the Moneyline, with the total set at O/U 8.5 leaning slightly toward the Over at -122.
DraftKings Betting Splits
| Market | Side | Bets % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pirates | 50% | 84% |
| Moneyline | Cubs | 50% | 16% |
| Run Line | Pirates -1.5 | 57% | 99% |
| Run Line | Cubs +1.5 | 43% | 1% |
| Total | Over 8.5 | 59% | 94% |
| Total | Under 8.5 | 41% | 6% |
Public Betting Trends
The Moneyline splits reveal a massive gap between bets and handle. While tickets are split evenly at 50/50, the handle tilts 84% toward Pittsburgh, indicating that larger, sharper wagers are backing the Pirates. The Run Line tells an even more dramatic story: 57% of bets but a staggering 99% of handle is on Pittsburgh -1.5, suggesting professional bettors expect the Pirates to win comfortably. On the total, 59% of bets favor the Over, but 94% of handle is backing Over 8.5. Across all three markets, the money side is overwhelmingly aligned with Pittsburgh and the Over, a clear signal that sharp bettors see value on the home favorite in a high-scoring affair.
Pirates vs. Cubs Stats
Team Batting Stats
| Stat | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .259 | .246 |
| OBP | .337 | .339 |
| SLG | .420 | .413 |
| OPS | .757 | .752 |
| ISO | .161 | .167 |
| BABIP | .320 | .291 |
| K% | 24.2% | 21.8% |
| BB% | 9.2% | 10.7% |
| Runs | 545 | 534 |
| RBI | 521 | 500 |
Team Pitching Stats
| Stat | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 4.30 | 4.19 |
| WHIP | 1.313 | 1.265 |
| K/9 | 9.31 | 7.87 |
| K/BB | 2.57 | 2.58 |
| OBA | .240 | .245 |
Starting Pitcher Stats
| Stat | Braxton Ashcraft | Jameson Taillon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-4 | 2-5 |
| ERA | 3.95 | 5.38 |
| WHIP | 1.169 | 1.319 |
| FIP | 3.54 | 6.40 |
| xFIP | 3.25 | 4.72 |
| WAR | 2.54 | -0.77 |
| K% | 27.0% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 7.8% |
| HR/9 | 1.24 | 2.75 |
Key Matchup Numbers
- Pitching edge: Ashcraft owns a 3.95 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 2.54 WAR compared to Taillon’s 5.38 ERA, 6.40 FIP, and -0.77 WAR.
- Strikeout gap: Ashcraft’s 27.0% K rate dwarfs Taillon’s 21.2%, while walking fewer batters (5.8% vs. 7.8%).
- Home run risk: Taillon allows 2.75 HR/9, more than double Ashcraft’s 1.24 HR/9 mark.
- Team batting: Pittsburgh holds a .259/.337/.420 slash line against Chicago’s .246/.339/.413, giving the Pirates a slight offensive advantage at home.
- Record/Form: Chicago (59-45, W2) enters with the better record, but Pittsburgh (53-52, L3) has the pitching matchup heavily in its favor.
- Weather: 85 degrees and sunny at PNC Park with light 3 mph winds, conditions that historically favor hitters.
The pitching disparity is the defining factor in this matchup. Ashcraft has been one of Pittsburgh’s best starters all season, while Taillon continues to struggle with an inflated FIP and alarming home run rate. Combined with warm weather and the sharp money flowing heavily toward Pittsburgh and the Over, this projects as a game where the Pirates control the tempo against a vulnerable Cubs starter.
Betting Splits Summary
| Metric | Pirates/Over | Cubs/Under |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Bets % | 50% | 50% |
| Moneyline Handle % | 84% | 16% |
| Run Line Bets % | 57% | 43% |
| Run Line Handle % | 99% | 1% |
| Total Bets % | 59% | 41% |
| Total Handle % | 94% | 6% |
FAQs
What are MLB betting splits?
MLB betting splits show the percentage of bets and handle (total money wagered) on each side of a market. They help bettors identify where the public and sharp money are landing for a given game.
What is the difference between bets and handle?
Bets refer to the number of individual wagers placed on each side, while handle represents the total dollar amount wagered. A gap between the two often signals sharp or professional money, as larger individual bets can swing the handle without moving the bet count significantly.
How do betting splits identify sharp money?
When handle percentage significantly exceeds bet percentage on one side, it suggests fewer but larger wagers from professional bettors. Sharp money tends to move lines and is widely tracked as a leading indicator of where informed bettors see value.
Should you follow betting splits?
Betting splits are one tool among many for handicapping a game. They are most useful when combined with other analysis such as pitching matchups, lineup data, and situational trends. Following sharp money alone does not guarantee profitability, but it can help confirm or challenge your pre-existing lean.
How often do DraftKings betting splits update?
DraftKings trending data updates periodically throughout the day as new wagers come in. Splits can shift significantly between early morning and first pitch, so checking closer to game time provides the most actionable snapshot.
What is the best bet for Pirates vs. Cubs?
Based on current DraftKings splits, the sharp money is heavily aligned with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Moneyline handle sits at 84% on Pittsburgh despite an even 50/50 bet split, and the Run Line shows 99% of handle on Pirates -1.5. With Braxton Ashcraft (3.95 ERA, 3.54 FIP) facing Jameson Taillon (5.38 ERA, 6.40 FIP), the sharp-side play is Pittsburgh on the Moneyline at -131.
