It is a loaded 15-game slate of MLB action with all 30 teams suiting up. In the afternoon window, the two highest payrolls in the sport will face off as the Los Angeles Dodgers challenge the New York Mets. The Dodgers have won the opening two games of the season by scores of 4-2 and 4-3, and they will be looking to complete the sweep today.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Dodgers enter as -150 favorites and hold +109 odds of winning on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets hold +124 odds of getting the outright victory, with the run total set at 8.5.
Dodgers at Mets prediction, preview
The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off back-to-back World Series Championships and were the first defending champion to take the best record into the All-Star break since 2010. They enter this matchup with an MLB-best 67-38 record, and arrive on a four-game winning streak. On the season, Los Angeles has gone 47-58 to the run line and the game total is 48-56-1 to the over/under.
Emmet Sheehan will get the start for the Dodgers today. This will be Sheehan’s 19th start of the season, and he is posting a 4-7 record, a 5.19 ERA and a 1.266 WHIP with 17 home runs allowed and 99 strikeouts tallied across 87.2 innings pitched. The 26-year-old is coming off his most concerning start of the season, as he allowed six earned runs and two home runs in his previous matchup with the Phillies.
The Dodgers’ offense arrives with collective slash lines of .260/.341/.432 with a .773 OPS. Shohei Ohtani boasts a team-high 22 home runs along with 61 RBIs and 104 total hits on the year. Freddie Freeman has tallied a team-leading 115 hits, along with 15 home runs and 51 RBIs. Andy Pages is the lone other player with triple-digit hits at 106 on the season, along with 17 home runs and a team-leading 69 RBIs. Kyle Tucker, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez also play key roles in the lineup. As a team, Los Angeles ranks second in hits, third in runs, fifth in home runs and 25th in strikeouts.
The New York Mets have slipped to a 43-61 record on the season, and they are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. They sit in last place in the NL East and hold the fourth-worst winning percentage in the league. On the season, the Mets have gone 47-58 against the run line, while the game total is 46-50-9 to the over/under.
Freddy Peralta will get the start for the Mets today. This will be the 22nd start of the season for the prized offseason addition, who has greatly struggled to this point. Peralta enters with a 5-9 record, a 5.01 ERA and a 1.459 WHIP with 17 home runs allowed and 110 strikeouts tallied across 109.2 innings pitched. He has allowed three or more earned runs in 10 of his 21 starts, and he is coming off seven earned runs in his previous start against the Brewers.
The Mets’ offense is posting collective slash lines of .233/.303/.381 with a .684 OPS. Juan Soto headlines the production with 21 home runs, 52 RBIs and a National League-leading .947 OPS, but he joined the injury report yesterday with a calf injury. Bo Bichette has settled in after a rough start, leading the team with 105 hits, 10 home runs and 52 RBIs. Francisco Alvarez, Carson Benge and Marcus Semien have each also notched 10+ home runs on the season. As a team, New York ranks 23rd in hits, 27th in runs, 14th in home runs and 14th in strikeouts.
Dodgers at Mets pick, best bet
While these teams rank first and second in the MLB in payroll, the results have been quite different on the field. The Dodgers have looked the part of the best team in baseball and are considered the rightful favorites to defend their back-to-back World Series titles at +190 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. In contrast, the Mets sit near the bottom of the MLB hierarchy and are on their way to missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season and taking a further step back from last year’s 83-79 record.
One of the examples of mismanaged contracts will be on the mound today for the Mets. While Freddy Peralta earned a pair of All-Star appearances with the Brewers, he has not come close to living up to expectations with the Mets. Peralta has faced off with this Dodgers lineup in 145 at-bats in his career, and he has limited them to slash lines of .228/.309/.421 with a .729 OPS, six home runs allowed and 19 RBIs conceded across these opportunities. But he has been his least effective by just about every metric this season, with his 2019 season the only season close.
Emmet Sheehan has not had his best season ever, but there have been more impressive flashes than what has been seen from Peralta. Even with the pitching matchup put to the side, the pulse being shown at the plate is so much more encouraging from this Dodgers’ lineup. Especially with Soto sidelined, there is not enough talent on the field for New York that this type of payroll should command.
My lean is toward the game total going over the 8.5 run total given the shortcomings of both pitchers. But I am backing the Dodgers to cover the 1.5-run line and complete the sweep against this inferior opponent. Los Angeles is on a four-game winning streak and is 6-2 since returning from the All-Star break. Expect Los Angeles to tag Peralta for runs at a rate that the Mets cannot match and for the Dodgers to secure a comfortable win.
Best bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+109)
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