The Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers have split the opening two games of this series and will face off in the rubber match today. Milwaukee tallied a 5-2 win in the opening matchup, before Colorado answered with an 8-5 win yesterday. The Rockies and Brewers will hand the ball to Kyle Freeland and Jacob Misiorowski as their respective starters today as they look to settle things.
Looking at the odds, the Brewers enter as massive -356 favorites on the moneymen and -159 favorites to cover the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rockies hold +278 odds of pulling off the upset with the run total set at eight.
Rockies at Brewers prediction, preview
The Colorado Rockies hold a 42-64 record on the season, second-worst in MLB. They hold a 3-5 record since the All-Star break and are looking to bounce back from yesterday’s loss. On the season overall, the Rockies have gone 56-50 to the run line, and the run total 49-54-3 to the over/under.
Kyle Freeland is the expected starter for the Rockies and has struggled greatly on the season. The 33-year-old enters with a 7.28 ERA and 1.564 WHIP while leading the MLB with 76 earned runs allowed. He also has a 2-9 overall record, 20 home runs allowed, and just 83 strikeouts across 94.0 innings pitched. Freeland has faced this Brewers lineup in 96 at-bats in his career, limiting Milwaukee to slash lines of .228/.309/.421 with five home runs and 14 RBIs allowed.
Looking at their production at the plate, the Rockies rank third in MLB in hits, seventh in runs scored, 18th in home runs, and ninth in strikeouts. Hunter Goodman leads the team with 31 home runs and 60 RBI. Mickey Moniak adds 16 home runs and 43 RBI of his own, while TJ Rumfield and Jake McCarthy have also cracked 10+ home runs and 53+ RBIs apiece. Troy Johnson, Willi Castro, Kyle Karros, and Ezequiel Tovar also play important roles.
The Milwaukee Brewers enter at 65-39 on the season, which slots them in first place in the National League Central and trails only the Dodgers for the best record in MLB. Milwaukee is 6-2 since the All-Star break, and is chasing the 97-65 record they finished with last year. On the season, the Brewers are 55-49 to the run line, and the run total is 46-56-2 to the over/under.
Jacob Misiorowski will take the ball for the Brewers today, his 20th of the season. The young star enters with an MLB-best 1.57 ERA, a 10-4 record, nine home runs, and 173 strikeouts tallied across 115.0 innings pitched. Milwaukee is likely to be a bit cautious with their approach for the 24-year-old as he has battled some arm fatigue of late, but Misiorowski is in the conversation for the most talented pitchers in baseball when he is playing to his peak. He has faced the Rockies in 28 at-bats thus far in his young career, limiting them to just four hits, one RBI, and slash lines of .143/.226/.179.
Milwaukee ranks seventh in MLB in hits, fifth in runs, last in home runs, and 21st in strikeouts. William Contreras has recorded 10 home runs and 57 RBI, while Brice Turang has added 15 home runs and 62 RBI of his own. Jake Bauers leads the team with 18 home runs and 59 RBI, while Jackson Chourio adds 13 home runs and 39 RBIs of his own. Garret Mitchell, Gary Sanchez, and Christian Yelich also play notable roles.
Rockies at Brewers pick, best bet
This is about as lopsided of a pitching matchup as will occur in the MLB. There are some fair concerns about the arm fatigue Misiorowski is battling, and Milwaukee limited him to a season-low 4.0 innings in his previous start after he received extended rest. But the effects have been far more impactful on his availability compared to his impact, as he did not allow an earned run to the Mets in this matchup. The Rockies’ lineup has made far less talented pitchers look like Aces on the mound this year, and expect this to be a great chance for Misiorowski to pitch in attack mode and continue adding to his impressive stats.
In contrast, Kyle Freeland has faced far less dangerous lineups this season and made opponents look like Hall of Famers at the plate. His 7.28 ERA, 1.564 WHIP, and 20 home runs allowed are concerning enough on the surface level. But he has allowed 4+ earned runs in three straight starts and in 11 of the 19 games overall. Freeland showed some promise at the start of the season, offering a 2.30 ERA through his first four starts. But he has offered an 8.27 ERA since this point and not shown much hope in turning things around. This is the same pitcher who led the MLB with 17 losses last season and has allowed 19+ home runs in each of his last six seasons.
Expect this pitching matchup to be the difference in this game and for the Brewers to pour on runs at a rate the Rockies have no chance of matching. Milwaukee looks to be gearing up for a playoff run, building off last year’s success, while Colorado is largely limping through the season once again. Milwaukee also has the fourth-best bullpen ERA while the Rockies rank 27th in this category, so expect similar principles to apply when the starters are chased. Expect this matchup to get ugly early, and I am backing the Brewers to produce a blowout win by more than the 2.5-run line.
Best bet: Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 (-107)
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