National League clubs wrap their season series Sunday afternoon, as the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park.
The Diamondbacks (55–50, 2nd NL West) took Friday’s series opener, 3–2, before the Nationals (53–52, 3rd NL East) answered with a 5–3 victory on Saturday. Washington holds a 3–2 edge over Arizona this year heading into Sunday’s finale.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got Arizona southpaw Kohl Drake (0–0, 1.80 ERA) taking on Washington right-hander Miles Mikolas (3–7, 5.60 ERA).
First pitch is at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks enter as 1.5-run road favorites with -124 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nationals are +103 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 10 runs.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks — without an October appearance since winning the 2023 National League pennant — are in possession of the third Wild Card spot as we roll into August.
Arizona’s largely dormant offense has started heating up since the beginning of July, sitting 14th in wRC+, 12th in wOBA, and eighth in xwOBA in that span. With multiple hitters surging this month, Corbin Carroll recently shrugged off his slump to join the party; the superstar outfielder has collected four extra-base hits — including two triples and a home run — over his last six games.
Meanwhile, the D-Backs’ impenetrable defense continues to protect their mediocre pitching staff. Since July 1, they rank seventh in ERA compared to 24th in xERA. Arizona will hope the dam continues to hold for rookie starter Kohl Drake. While the 26-year-old southpaw impressed with five innings of one-run ball in his MLB debut against the Athletics, his underlying metrics suggest some serious room for improvement. Drake’s performance also produced a 15.4 percent barrel rate, a .286 xBA, and a 5.59 xERA.
Washington Nationals
Washington’s offense is doing everything it can to carry the club into the postseason. Only two games behind the D-Backs for that third Wild Card spot, the Nationals trail only the Dodgers for the top wRC+ and wOBA in MLB this season. They’ve led the majors in those categories — along with home runs — since the beginning of July.
Three members of the Nationals’ young core are on pace to crush 33 or more home runs (their fourth promising slugger, Curtis Mead, was traded to the Red Sox late Saturday night in exchange for young lefty Connelly Early). That blossoming batch includes James Wood, who ranks sixth in MLB with 28 bombs — along with CJ Abrams, who on Saturday tied the franchise record for most four-baggers in a season by a shortstop (25).
If only they could stop hemorrhaging runs on the other end. Washington ranks 27th in ERA and 29th in xERA this season, neither the rotation nor the bullpen able to plug the leak. Sunday’s starter, Miles Mikolas, is perhaps the main culprit, saddled with an unsightly 5.60 ERA — seventh-worst in the majors (min. 90 IP). The veteran right-hander, 37, ranks in the bottom six percent of pitchers in xBA and is liable for the lowest strikeout rate in the sport.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Pick, Best Bet
Sunday’s rubber match between the Diamondbacks and the Nationals is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair. Kohl Drake will be making his second career start against the most potent offense in the sport, after posting some troubling advanced metrics in his debut. Miles Mikolas, meanwhile, should serve up his usual batting practice to another surging lineup, hungry to hold onto its postseason spot. After combining for eight runs on Saturday, Arizona and Washington should hit double digits in the series finale.
