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Prediction, pick for Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson at UFC Abu Dhabi

Prediction, pick for Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson at UFC Abu Dhabi

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

It’s going down at 170 pounds on Saturday night, as Santiago Ponzinibbio takes on Sam Patterson at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov in Abu Dhabi.

Ponzinibbio (31–9, 12–8 UFC) returns to the Octagon for the first time since May 2025, when he suffered a third-round TKO loss to Daniel Rodriguez — his sixth loss in his last nine fights. Patterson (14–3, 4–2 UFC) is looking to bounce back from a unanimous decision loss to Michael Page in March, which snapped a four-fight, first-round stoppage streak. 

Patterson enters as a heavy -500 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Ponzinibbio is a +380 underdog, with the fight total set at O/U 1.5 rounds. 

Ponzinibbio vs. Patterson Preview

Santiago Ponzinibbio

  • 31–9 (12–8 UFC)
  • 17–5 (T)KO
  • 6–0 SUB

Santiago Ponzinibbio is looking to stage a highly improbable comeback. At 39, he’s returning after more than a year away from the cage, having dropped six of his last nine bouts. Three of those losses came by knockout or TKO, including his most recent bout against Daniel Rodriguez in May 2025. It was his fifth career knockout defeat. 

While the “Argentine Dagger” remains a formidable striker with a strong ground game, his skills — and durability — have continued to wither with age. There’s a real chance that the grizzled veteran is fighting to preserve his UFC career on Saturday.

Sam Patterson

  • 14–3–1 (4–2 UFC)
  • 6–2 (T)KO
  • 7–0 SUB

Don’t read too deep into Sam Patterson’s last outing — a snoozefest striking match with Michael Page is a rite of passage at this point. Before dropping a decision to “MVP” earlier this year, the English contender had won four straight bouts by first-round stoppage, highlighted by back-to-back knockouts. 

Patterson, 30, marries crisp boxing with a dangerous ground game and enters Saturday night with a 93 percent finish rate. He’s eyeing a spot in the top-15 with a statement win over Ponzinibbio, against whom he’ll have a three-inch height and five-inch reach advantage.

Ponzinibbio vs. Patterson Pick, Best Bet

Santiago Ponzinibbio has gotten knocked out a lot. Sam Patterson has done a lot of knocking out. 

Patterson has a golden opportunity to continue his climb up the welterweight ladder, facing a fading veteran with an eroding chin. Expect the English contender to employ his sharp boxing — bolstered by a considerable size advantage — to notch another statement victory Saturday night in Abu Dhabi.

Best Bet: Sam Patterson by KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

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