The final Saturday in July is part of another great weekend packed with Major League Baseball. Five games get started in the afternoon with 10 more under the lights. It should be a beautiful day for baseball from a weather perspective as well, with hardly any threat of rain. Without Coors Field or Sutter Health Park, park factors are fairly neutral overall, so we’ll look to find some warm temperatures and favorable matchups for today’s home run props. For Saturday’s props, I’m being extra aggressive and swinging for the fences with three long shot bets with odds over +500. My top home run props for Saturday are from Trevor Larnach, Nathaniel Lowe and Julio Rodriguez.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | Twins | Larnach has three homers in his last 13 games, and he is in a good matchup against Mason Barnett, who has allowed a .378 ISO, .435 wOBA and 41.9% hard-hit rate to lefties this season. |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Reds | Lowe has three homers in his last six games with a 50% hard-hit rate. He is 4-for-11 with a pair of homers in his career against Andre Pallante, who has been shaky at home this season, where Lowe will face him at long odds on Saturday night. |
| Julio Rodriguez | Mariners | Julio has hit in five straight games after coming off the concussion IL, with a home run, a double and a 43.8% hard-hit rate. He is 9-for-24 with a home run in his past matchups with Nathan Eovaldi, and he usually hits his stride as the summer and the pennant races heat up. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+573)
Larnach is a lefty who usually hits at the top of the order for the Twins. He has eight homers on the season, including three homers in his last 13 games. Over that stretch, he has an 11.4% barrel rate with a .436 wOBA and .286 ISO.
He went yard on Wednesday to lead off the game against the Guardians for his most recent homer.
He’ll likely be back at the top of the lineup against righty Mason Barnett on Saturday night at Target Field. Barnett will be making his first start after 13 relief appearances earlier this season. He has allowed five homers in his 21 1/3 MLB innings, and three of those have been hit by lefties like Larnach. Lefties have a .378 ISO and .435 wOBA against Barnett in his limited MLB action, with a 41.9% hard-hit rate. In Triple-A, Barnett had a 4.31 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 10 games, all of which were starts.
Larnach has shown enough power to be a good longshot play against Barnett, who has been so hittable by lefties. Against righties like Barnett, Larnach has hit .311 with a .382 wOBA and six of his eight homers.
Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+840)
Lefty Nathaniel Lowe is an even longer shot to hit a big fly on Saturday night, with odds at over 8:1. He brings extreme value as the Reds visit the Cardinals in St. Louis and take on Andre Pallante. Lowe has hit a dozen homers this season for Cincinnati, including two homers in the last week.
He has been a streaky power producer this season and throughout his career, and he has three homers in his last six games with a 50% hard-hit rate and 15% barrel rate.
Lowe will likely be in the lineup as the Reds face righty Andre Pallante, whom Lowe is 4-for-11 against in his career with two homers. Pallante has been excellent on the road with a 6-0 record and 2.66 ERA this season, but he is only 4-6 with a 4.99 ERA in his 11 home starts. Since he’ll be at Busch Stadium on Saturday night, it’s a good spot to get Lowe at these long odds to reach him for another dinger Saturday night.
Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+527)
Throughout his career, Rodriguez has typically heated up in the second half after the All-Star break and gone on torrid runs to help Seattle climb into the playoffs. He’ll look to run back that same script this year after a quick trip to the IL earlier this month to deal with a concussion.
Rodriguez has hit safely in five straight games after going 0-for-4 in his first game back, and he homered Tuesday against the Reds.
The 25-year-old righty has hit .278 during his five-game hitting streak with a 43.8% hard-hit rate and at least one hard-hit event in each contest. He has the potential to go yard in any matchup and will look to pick up his pace to its typical summer level.
On Saturday night, he and the M’s are in Texas for an important divisional series against the Rangers. They lost the first game of the series on Friday, 5-4, and they’ll face Nathan Eovaldi as they try to level the series at Globe Life Field in Arlington. Julio has gone 9-for-24 (.375) against Eovaldi in the past with a home run, and Eovaldi has allowed 22 homers in 19 starts this season, including five in his last three starts and nine in his seven home starts.
With Rodriguez finding his form and Eovaldi struggling, Julio brings nice upside at odds over 5:1 in one of the final games on Saturday night’s slate.
