Who doesn’t love an underdog?
Betting on an underdog is the easiest way to get the most bang for your buck with a single wager, yet it’s always a somewhat risky endeavor. I mean, they’re underdogs for a reason, right? Still, there’s no sport where the underdog comes through more often than in baseball. It’s a 162-game season. Even the best teams are going to lose about 60 times a year.
With that in mind, let’s go looking for dogs this Saturday night on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Just a heads up that I went 3-for-3 on Friday in this post, whether that makes me rollin’ or radioactive to tail on Saturday, I’ll let you decide.
Best MLB Underdog Bets, Picks
Cubs ML (+102)
The reason the Cubs are ‘dogs here is pretty obvious – the Pirates have Paul Skenes on the mound. However, that hasn’t necessarily meant the Pirates will get the win this season. While they have won each of his last three starts, they lost nine consecutive Skenes outings before that. Skenes has allowed only five runs in his three most recent starts, beating the Guardians, Brewers and Braves.
He faced the Cubs on May 28 this season, allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings in a game the Cubs won 7-2. The Cubs took two of three games in Pittsburgh during that series after the Pirates took three of four games from the Cubs in their first series of the season.
The Cubs won the first game in this series, though, 3-2, in extra innings on Friday. They’ve gone 4-3 in their seven games since the All-Star break, while the Pirates have gone 3-4. One of the games the Cubs won in that stretch was a great outing from Shota Imanaga, who went seven shutout innings against the Twins. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight outings and seems to have regained his form after an ugly stretch of results in May.
Imanaga faced the Pirates before getting on the struggle bus and held them to just one walk in six hitless innings in one of his best starts of the year. He has only allowed one earned run in 32 innings in his career against the Pirates, and he should be able to pitch well enough to keep the Cubs in it even against Skenes. Once Skenes is out, the Cubs have been clutch enough and the Pirates’ bullpen shaky enough to like the odds of them pulling out a win.
Mets ML (+130)
The Mets are hosting the Dodgers and are heavy home ‘dogs on Saturday night in what should be a beautiful pitching matchup. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is starting for the Dodgers, coming off his complete game in the Bronx last week, and he’ll be opposed by Nolan McLean, who has found his groove and looked very sharp in his last few outings as well.
It’s easy to see why Yamamoto and the Dodgers are the favorites. The Dodgers have 66 wins, the most in the MLB, and Yamamoto is on the short list of NL Cy Young candidates. He is 10-6 with a 2.78 ERA and 3.33 FIP. He has earned a decision in 12 straight starts, going 8-4. In his first start this season against the Mets, he did earn a rare no-decision with one run in 7 2/3 innings in a 2-1 Mets victory.
McLean started against him in that game, all the way back on April 14, earning a no-decision as well. After a rough patch in May and June, McLean has won three of his last four starts, allowing only two earned runs total in 24 innings. In his last start, he went six shutout innings and allowed just two hits with 10 strikeouts.
With the potential for McLean to dominate like that, the Mets have a chance to pull off this upset. Juan Soto probably won’t be in the lineup after leaving early with a calf issue on Friday, but Luis Robert Jr. and Francisco Lindor are back to still give the Mets’ lineup a little bit of pop. While they’re clearly the underdogs, McLean gives them a real chance.
Reds ML (-107)
For the third option in Saturday’s MLB underdog picks, let’s swing to St. Louis for an NL Central matchup between the Reds and Cardinals. The Reds won the first game of the series on Friday 4-2 behind a two-run homer from Eugenio Suarez and five strong innings from Rhett Lowder. Since the All-Star break, Cincy is 5-2, while the Cardinals are only 2-6.
The Reds are still slight underdogs on Saturday night in a virtual coin-flip matchup. They’re not quite plus-money, but they have momentum as well as an advantage on the mound. They’ll give the ball to Hunter Greene, who will be making his fourth start of the season, while the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante.
Greene has an ugly 6.06 ERA, which probably is part of the reason the Reds are the underdog. However, a deeper look shows that he gave up eight runs in his first start back off the IL, then he dominated the Cubs for seven shutout innings to win his second start. In his last start, he also got the win despite giving up three runs in six innings. That game was at Coors Field, though, so that also impacts the stat line. The fact that he’ll be in St. Louis for this matchup sets him up well for his third straight win. He has a 3.77 ERA in his six career starts at Busch Stadium and a 3.23 career ERA against the Cardinals.
Pallante has been much more hittable on the other side of the matchup. The 27-year-old righty is 4-6 with a 4.99 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and gave up 11 runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two home starts. He has a long history against the Reds and has gone 2-4 in his last six starts against them. He beat them earlier this season by allowing just one run in six innings, but that was on the road, where he is undefeated this season. Pallante has been much more hittable at home, which gives Greene the higher ceiling.
With their advantage on the mound and better recent form, the Reds have a good chance to pull off this upset Saturday night and take the first two games in this series.
If you choose to stack the three MLB underdog picks in this post into a parlay, you can get juicy +798 odds if the three picks run the table. Since they do come with plenty of risk, though, it also makes sense to play them individually and as a round robin, so that if any two of the three hit, you’ll still secure some serious payouts.
