During the World Cup, Vancouver got a taste of success, as Canada won its first-ever World Cup match at BC Place. The Reds, though, aren’t the most successful team to call the arena home, as the Vancouver Whitecaps are currently on top of the MLS Western Conference. The Whitecaps haven’t actually played at home since April 25 as the stadium prepared for the World Cup, but that’s set to change early next month now that the MLS schedule is back underway.
Vancouver will play its second game of the resumed schedule at 8:30 p.m. ET, when it travels to face Minnesota United in the final game of its road trip.
The Whitecaps are -115 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Loons are +260. There are +270 odds that the teams will share the points.
Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and provide my favorite bet.
Minnesota United vs. Vancouver Whitecaps Best Bet:
- Vancouver Whitecaps Moneyline (-115): Vancouver is simply a juggernaut both in and out of possession, leading the league in expected goals and expected goals conceded. Minnesota United has a fine defense, but it doesn’t have the finishing quality to break through the Whitecaps’ back line.
Minnesota United vs. Vancouver Whitecaps prediction, pick
Vancouver has emerged as a powerhouse, finishing last season second in the Western Conference behind San Diego FC on goal difference and advancing to the MLS Cup before losing to Inter Miami. Then, the Whitecaps got better in the offseason, signing Bayern Münich legend Thomas Müller to start in the midfield, and he’s helped them to the third-best record in MLS so far, two points behind the Herons with a game in hand. Meanwhile, Minnesota United has made the playoffs in six of its nine seasons, but it currently sits just ninth in the West on goal difference. The Loons have an international legend of their own in James Rodríguez, but he’s been less effective than Müller, and losing Canada international Tani Oluwaseyi to Villarreal has clearly hurt.
Minnesota United’s attack has been a fairly egalitarian one this season. Beyond Kelvin Yeboah (eight goals) and Anthony Markanich (four), seven other players have found the back of the next exactly once. Joaquín Pereyra has been the Loons’ primary playmaker, leading the team and tying for fifth league-wide with six assists, while Rodríguez has chipped in two assists in six games (two starts). All in all, Minnesota United’s approach hasn’t been good enough in the final third, as it ranks third-to-last in goals per match (and just 15th in expected goals). The Loons have been excellent on set pieces and have produced plenty of high-quality looks, completing crosses at the highest rate and averaging the ninth-most touches in the box, but they don’t have the requisite finisher to capitalize on those chances. With some finishing improvement, Minnesota United could climb the standings, as its defense is already good, ranking ninth in expected goals allowed per match and allowing the 12th-lowest shot-in-box percentage. In particular, the Loons rank near the top of the league in interceptions and clearances per match, and they win aerial duels at high rates. They’ve also forced the fourth-most high turnovers, and shot-stopper Drake Callender ranks 11th in goals prevented per 90 minutes.
However, Vancouver is a two-way juggernaut. Müller is the headliner, but USMNT midfielder Sebastian Berhalter, who’s set to transfer to Championship side Middlesbrough, has six goals and Brian White has 10. Eight different players have found the back of the net at least twice, including Müller and Cheikh Tidiane Sabaly, a good enough player to feature (briefly) at the Africa Cup of Nations. Given all the talent on their roster, it’s no surprise that the Whitecaps have managed 0.31 more expected goals per match than any other team, uncorking the most shots and putting the second-most on target while dominating from set pieces and completing passes at the 10th-highest rate. To boot, Vancouver pairs that with the league’s strongest defense, allowing 0.27 fewer expected goals per match than the next-best side and allowing the fewest shots and shots on target. The Whitecaps have also averaged the second-most tackles and the third-most recoveries per match despite dominating possession, winning a majority of both ground and aerial duels and forcing the most high turnovers with their press. Vancouver has also been among the best teams at playing the offsides trap. Goalkeeper Yohei Takaoka has been basically the Whitecaps’ only weakness.
The last time these teams played, Vancouver picked up a 6-0 win, with White scoring twice and Berhalter netting once. I don’t expect Callender to play as poorly as he did in that game, as he only recorded two saves from eight shots on target, and given that the Whitecaps have been MLS’ most foul-prone team, it wouldn’t be shocking if Minnesota United ended up scoring from a set piece. Regardless, the Loons aren’t clinical enough from open play to take advantage of the limited opportunities Vancouver will allow, and they don’t pass cleanly enough to consistently break the Whitecaps’ press. Minnesota United hasn’t won in the league since May 2, and with Müller back in Vancouver’s lineup after resting in Wednesday’s loss to Cincinnati FC, that’s unlikely to change tonight.
