Perhaps in another timeline, tonight game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets would’ve been the most exciting matchup on today’s MLB slate. Instead, we get the best team in baseball taking on a vastly underperforming group that just lost Juan Soto due to injury last night. Still, life goes on, with first pitch for game two on Saturday set for 7:15 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Dodgers vs. Mets game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Mets prediction, preview
Last night, this Dodgers team won 4-2 to open the series behind a three-hit game from Freddie Freeman and two-hit efforts from Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker, the latter of whom belted a homer and finished with a pair of RBI. The bad news came for the Mets, who lost Juan Soto to a calf issue that’s now sent him to the IL yet again.
Los Angeles moved to 66-38 with its third consecutive win last night, pushing its run differential to +159 on the year. Meanwhile, New York fell to 43-61 with a run differential of -66.
Tonight’s starter for the Dodgers is ace RHP Yoshibobu Yamamoto (10-6). He carries a 2.78 ERA and an 0.88 WHIP into this matchup with 113 strikeouts over 119.2 IP. His play has been extremely impressive, and while the 24.8% K% isn’t elite, he does have a 5.5% BB% to complement it. The club’s bullpen ranks seventh in ERA at 3.77 with a 1.24 WHIP and a 14.0% K-BB%.
For the Mets, RHP Nolan McLean (7-6) gets the starting nod. He’s amassed a 3.34 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 135 strikeouts across 113.1 IP, good for a 28.8% K%. His 8.7% BB% is less impressive, but he’s been quite good over his last few starts and appears to be locked in. New York’s bullpen sits 13th in ERA at 3.99 with a 1.28 WHIP and a 14.5% K-BB%.
These two offenses couldn’t be more different. The Dodgers are dominant at the plate with an MLB-best .774 OPS and 5.18 runs per game, third most. They’re third in ISO (.172) and sixth in home runs (135) but don’t sacrifice approach in the process, coming in at second in BB/K ratio with an 0.50 mark thanks to a 10.3% BB% and a 20.5% K%. Against right-handers, they slash .266/.347/.440 for a very impressive .786 OPS.
The Mets, however, don’t experience nearly the same success. They’re third-to-last in OPS at .686 and their 4.05 runs per game are fourth fewest of any MLB club. They do sit 23rd in ISO (.149) and 14th in home runs (123), but the power upside takes a significant dip without Soto in the lineup for the foreseeable future. They also have an 0.37 BB/K ratio overall. The slash line against right-handed pitching reads .234/.304/.384 for an OPS of .688.
Dodgers vs. Mets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -157 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight with the Mets set as +130 home underdogs. The run total sits at 7.5 for this one.
Outside of a recent blow-up game in which he allowed six earned runs in 6.0 innings, Yamamoto has been very, very good. He’s a possible Cy Young candidate in the NL and gets a super-tasty matchup today against one of the worst offenses in the MLB – without its superstar, at that. Likewise, McLean is in his best form right now after allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts this month and allowing zero in four of his last six. Given the arm talent in this contest, I like taking the pair of starters to combine for three or fewer earned runs at plus value.
