The NL Central has been the most competitive division in baseball, with four of five teams above .500. Two of those clubs, the Cubs (58-45) and Pirates (53-51) will meet tonight for the second matchup in a three-game weekend series. On Friday, it was Chicago that came away with a 3-2 victory. Pittsburgh will attempt to even things up on Saturday with reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes on the mound. Which of these rivals will come out on top tonight?
The Pirates are favorites (-117) over the Cubs, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Chicago and Pittsburgh on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet today
- Cubs vs. Pirates under 8.5 runs (-135): While it makes sense to back the Pirates with Skenes pitching, that’s backfired on betters all season. The safer play tonight, given Imanaga’s previous success vs. Pittsburgh, is the under.
Cubs vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Toeing the slab for Chicago tonight will be Shota Imanaga, making his 21st start of the season. The right-hander started off hot, but has been erratic throughout the summer. Over 115.0 innings of work, he’s accounted for a 3.91 ERA, 1.11WHIP and 109 strikeouts (8.5 K/9). After a brutal month of June, the Japanese hurler is beginning to return to form. He’s allowed two earned runs or less over his previous four outings, notching a 1.96 ERA during that stretch. That includes stellar performances against above-average offenses in Minnesota and St. Louis.
It’s not as if this will be an easy matchup this evening for Imanaga. The Pirates are averaging 5.24 runs per game this season, second-most in baseball. Granted, notable bats such as Oneil Cruz (hand), Konnor Griffin (finger) and Endy Rodriguez (glute) are on the injured list. Still, seven different players on the active roster have a wRC+ above 100 (min. 100 plate appearances). That includes rookie sensation Esmerlyn Valdez, who has clubbed 13 homers over his first 35 major league at-bats.With that being said, Saturday’s game could prove difficult for the Buccos. Imanaga has recorded a minuscule 0.28 ERA over five career meetings with Pittsburgh. That includes a no-hit, no-run performance over six innings back on April 10th.
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Skenes on the bump for Pittsburgh. While he remains an absolute force on the mound, the 24-year-old hasn’t been quite as effective in 2026. He comes into this one with a 3.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 138 strikeouts (10.8 K/9) over 115.2 innings. Even more surprising, the Pirates have only won in nine of the righty’s 21 starts this season. Still, there’s no reason to think the three-time All-Star has fallen off. Per Savant, he ranks inside the 86th percentile in xERA (2.75), xBA (.205), strikeout rate (29.7%) and walk rate (5.6%).
Skenes has dominated in this matchup, posting a 2.77 ERA over eight career appearances vs. Chicago. That includes a ten-strikeout, one-run showing back on May 28th. To be fair, this is one of the sport’s more dangerous lineups. The Cubs are averaging 5.08 runs per game, fourth-most in baseball. However, they haven’t been quite as dangerous when facing right-handed pitching. Key bats such as Dansby Swanson (.222 BA) and Alex Bregman (.111 BA) haven’t done well against Skenes either.
Best Bet: Cubs vs. Pirates under 8.5 runs (-135)
It’s tempting to go with the Pirates on the moneyline at just -117. However, they’ve done a poor job when it comes to giving Skenes run support this season. To boot, Imanaga has had success in this matchup before. With two All-Stars on the mound, play it safe with under 8.5 runs.
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