On Wednesday, Inter Miami proved that it could do it without Lionel Messi, spoiling Robert Lewandowski’s MLS debut by topping the Chicago Fire, 3-2, despite an absolute howler by goalkeeper Rocco Ríos Novo. Now, the Herons will have to do it again without the global megastar, as Messi is not expected to return to his club until August as he recovers from leading Argentina to the World Cup final.
By comparison, Inter Miami should have an easier time tonight than it did against the Fire, given that its opponent, Montreal, sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The match is slated to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Despite being without Messi, the Herons are +110 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, and L’Impact are +185. There are +290 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this cross-border clash and provide my favorite bet.
CF Montreal vs. Inter Miami Best Bet:
- Inter Miami Win and Both to Score (+195): Both of these defenses have been poor, as Inter Miami has allowed the eighth-most expected goals per match and Montreal the 12th-most. To make matters worse, neither goalkeeper has a save percentage north of 60%. The Herons have the better attack, so they’re likely to win, but it should be an action-packed affair.
CF Montreal vs. Inter Miami prediction, pick
As it consistently has since adding Messi, Inter Miami has sat near the top of the Eastern Conference all season. After winning the MLS Cup last season and finishing with the best regular season record in 2024, the Herons are currently five points behind Nashville SC, and they’re in hot form, having won five straight games. By contrast, Montreal looks destined to miss the postseason for the third time in four seasons, as it has won just four times all season and sits 13th in the East on 15 points. L’Impact are four points behind the final Wild Card spot. Inter Miami has continued to make big moves, signing former Manchester United midfielder Casemiro for the stretch run, while Montreal, a much smaller-budget side, hasn’t been able to bring in any major names from European leagues.
Without the reputation or funds to attract international stars at the ends of their careers, L’Impact have lacked squad depth this season. Prince Owusu has been fantastic, scoring nine goals and adding six assists, and Wikelman Carmona has added four goals. It hasn’t been enough, though; Montreal has managed just the 10th-fewest expected goals per match, and while some of that is luck (it’s managed the 15th-most shots on target per match), its lack of clinical precision is also evident in its poor performance from set pieces, its tendency to get caught offside, and its poor pass completion rates. L’Impact haven’t made up for it on the other end of the ball, as they’ve allowed the 12th-most expected goals and the 12th-most shots on target per match. Montreal has also been extremely susceptible from set pieces while managing among the fewest blocks and recoveries per match. Although L’Impact have been pretty good at forcing high turnovers and won both aerial and ground duels at high rates, their propensity to foul and Thomas Gillier’s poor performance between the sticks (59.2% save percentage) have been their undoing.
The Herons didn’t miss a beat in the attack without Messi and Rodrigo De Paul in the win over Chicago, as Luis Suárez scored a brace and Preston Plambeck netted as a substitute. Inter Miami still has plenty of talent, as though Messi leads the team in both goals and assists, Germán Berterame’s production (seven goals, four assists) and Telasco Segovia’s (six assists) are still in line with expectations for star players. The Herons shouldn’t be expected to produce like a team that has managed the second-most expected goals from the most shots on target per match, but they should still be expected to be aggressive in the attack and complete passes at a fairly high rate, much as they did against the Fire. However, Inter Miami lacks in defense, giving up the eighth-most expected goals per match on the 11th-most shots on target. The Herons have lost a slight majority of both their ground and aerial duels, and despite pressing frequently, they don’t record many high turnovers. Whether Dayne St. Clair or Ríos Novo starts between the sticks, I don’t trust either, and it’s no shock that they’ve been linked to Cape Verde hero Vozinha.
Given each team’s poor defense, I’d expect a fairly high-scoring affair. While Montreal hasn’t been great at finishing, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Owusu found the back of the net, given how many shots Inter Miami allows. Additionally, although L’Impact’s poor passing could be a problem against a team that has recorded among the most interceptions, the Herons have been pretty careless and could give the ball right back. They’ve also been poor at playing the offsides trap, which could help mitigate Montreal’s biggest issue. Inter Miami will likely win in the end, especially if it can take advantage of the set pieces that L’Impact are wont to allow, but the Canadian side has played out a few high-scoring thrillers, including a 4-4 affair against D.C. United. This match could be another one.
