Michael Kim changed the entire 3M Open with a second-round 59, turning a crowded leaderboard into a weekend chase. He reached 14-under through 36 holes and built a three-shot lead with one of the season’s great putting performances. The round also included excellent approach play, so his position cannot be dismissed as pure short-game fortune. Still, nearly +6.6 strokes gained putting and 145 feet of made putts will be impossible to reproduce. TPC Twin Cities has remained soft, receptive, and vulnerable to sustained birdie runs. Eleven players sit within six shots, leaving Kim little room for an ordinary Saturday.
This weekend card attacks that uncertainty without assuming Kim immediately collapses. The strongest options combine manageable deficits, proven closing ability, and ball-striking that should survive two more aggressive rounds. Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, and Hideki Matsuyama anchor the card through experience, price, and credible routes into Sunday contention. The deeper selections require more help, but this tournament has repeatedly produced enormous weekend swings. One early 64 can erase half a deficit before the leader reaches the back nine. With low scores available throughout the field, the best approach favors several measured positions over one expensive wager against Kim.
Here are my favorite weekend bets for the 3M Open, in full-slip form, with unit breakdowns, such that if you were to copy-and-paste this full slip and one of our choices hit, you’d profit.
I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual tournaments all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best 3M Open weekend outright winner, placement picks
TPC Twin Cities leaves almost no room for a ceremonial victory lap. The course played nearly one stroke under par through Friday, producing 527 birdies and 18 eagles. Last year’s tournament featured five rounds of 62 or lower, including two 60s. Saturday brings extreme heat, humidity, and possible thunderstorms. That forecast could soften the property, disrupt routines, and increase an already volatile scoring environment.
This card assumes Kim remains dangerous. An ordinary 67 or 68 would still invite the field back into the tournament. Harman, Horschel, and Matsuyama anchor the portfolio through position, pedigree, and sustainable ball-striking. The remaining five selections target larger prices with credible routes toward a weekend charge. The full exposure reaches 3u, split evenly between core positions and deeper longshots.
Core positions: 1.50u
Brian Harman +2000: 0.75u
Billy Horschel +3000: 0.40u
Hideki Matsuyama +3700: 0.35u
Longshots: 1.50u
Lucas Glover +8600: 0.50u
Kevin Yu +8000: 0.40u
Kurt Kitayama +11000: 0.25u
Tom Kim +14500: 0.25u
Kevin Streelman +22500: 0.10u
Brian Harman +2000: 0.75u
Brian Harman receives the largest position because Friday’s 64 contained the most sustainable scoring profile beneath Kim’s lead. Harman gained approximately +5.20 strokes tee-to-green, including +2.36 approaching and +2.23 around the green. His putter added only +0.62. Harman reached nine-under through repeatable shot quality, with no putting eruption attached.
The season-long profile carries one obvious weakness. Harman ranks outside the Tour’s power class, averaging roughly 297 yards with a negative off-the-tee contribution. TPC Twin Cities still rewards restraint around its water, especially when attacking receptive greens from preferred angles. Harman’s approach form has improved to roughly +0.44 strokes per round across his past five measured starts. His putting has also moved above neutral during that stretch.
Five strokes remain a serious deficit, although +2000 asks for only a 4.8% winning probability. Harman owns four Tour victories and a major championship. He understands that Saturday requires aggression without emotional haste. A 64 or 65 could place him beside Kim before Sunday’s final pairing reaches the back nine.
This position also survives a decent round from the leader. Kim can shoot 67, reach 17-under, and still face pressure from Harman around 15-under. Harman deserves 0.75u because Friday’s score contained the least statistical theater. His irons, short game, and competitive experience offer the card’s cleanest route into Sunday contention.
Billy Horschel +3000: 0.40u
Billy Horschel shares Harman’s nine-under position, yet the market offers another 10 points of price. He opened 67-66 and gained approximately +2.49 strokes tee-to-green during Friday’s move. His putter contributed roughly +1.46, creating a stronger conversion day than Harman produced. The underlying round still carried enough long-game support to remain interesting.
Horschel’s broader profile explains the discount. He entered gaining about +0.19 strokes per round on approach. He was losing roughly -0.30 off the tee. His 63.9% greens-in-regulation rate sits below the Tour’s stronger iron class. Those numbers narrow his margin where missed birdie chances immediately become lost ground. They also make another 66 less automatic than Friday’s card suggests.
The price compensates for those concerns. +3000 implies a 3.2% chance for an eight-time Tour winner sitting five behind. Horschel has already finished T13 at TPC Twin Cities. His competitive temperament also suits a leaderboard requiring constant forward motion. He rarely mistakes contention for permission to become cautious.
Horschel must keep the driver playable, create wedges inside 20 feet, and let his streaky putter supply separation. Kim’s three-shot lead could disappear during one outward nine. Horschel’s 66 showed he can participate without borrowing every stroke from the greens.
The 0.40u position respects Harman’s cleaner foundation. Horschel offers comparable positional leverage at a considerably longer number. His volatility lowers the stake, while his experience and putting ceiling preserve a meaningful winning path.
Hideki Matsuyama +3700: 0.35u
Hideki Matsuyama begins seven behind, with more traffic separating him from Kim than Harman or Horschel faces. That deficit explains the smaller stake. It also creates the longest price among the three core positions, despite Matsuyama owning the strongest pure iron ceiling.
Matsuyama ranks around 34th in Strokes Gained: Approach at approximately +0.37 per round. He has made all 17 cuts this season and recorded nine top-25 finishes. His recent form has remained quietly excellent. Matsuyama finished T14 at the Travelers Championship, then added another T14 at The Open. Friday’s 65 transformed an ordinary opening 70 into a credible weekend position.
His short game adds another layer at TPC Twin Cities. Matsuyama has saved par from bunkers at roughly a 64% rate across the past three seasons. That ranks among the Tour’s best marks. Such protection carries extra value around 27 bodies of water and several demanding green complexes. Aggressive golf creates misses. Matsuyama owns more recovery skill than most players chasing this lead.
The concern is mathematical. Seven strokes and a crowded leaderboard demand something close to 64 on Saturday. Matsuyama cannot spend another round converting only a modest share of his iron chances. His putter remains closer to the Tour’s middle class, leaving the approaches responsible for manufacturing volume.
At +3700, the implied probability sits near 2.6%. That number underrates an 11-time Tour winner who already owns a major. The 0.35u position respects the deficit while purchasing elite weekend ceiling. Matsuyama remains the card’s likeliest player to produce an authoritative closing round.
Lucas Glover +8600: 0.50u
Lucas Glover is the strongest true longshot on the board. He sits seven behind after rounds of 65 and 70. His recent golf carries far greater substance than +8600 suggests. The market reacted to Friday’s stalled round and the crowded leaderboard. It has discounted the month preceding both.
Glover finished T3 at the John Deere Classic after opening 63-65. He followed with a T5 at the ISCO Championship, where another 63-64 start placed him in contention. His season-long approach number remains positive at roughly +0.25 strokes per round. He has also gained around +0.20 off the tee across his past five measured starts. The long game keeps creating enough chances to shoot Saturday’s required number.
The putter supplies both the opportunity and the danger. Glover has lost approximately -1.19 strokes putting per round across that recent five-start window. That is destructive production, yet it has not prevented consecutive top-five finishes. Even ordinary putting would unlock another level from a player already living near the first page.
Glover owns four Tour victories and understands how to maintain pace during a shootout. Friday’s 70 remains the principal objection. TPC Twin Cities offered birdies throughout the field, while Glover surrendered valuable position. He probably needs 64 on Saturday, followed by another round near 66.
+8600 implies roughly a 1.15% chance. That threshold feels too low for a golfer seven behind with consecutive top-fives. The 0.50u stake makes Glover the largest longshot position. His price treats the putter as permanent. His recent results show everything surrounding it remains strong enough to survive.
Kevin Yu +8000: 0.40u
Kevin Yu offers the card’s cleanest combination of distance and birdie production. He reached seven-under through rounds of 69 and 66, leaving himself seven behind Kim. That position remains demanding. His scoring profile gives him a credible route toward the 63 or 64 required Saturday.
Yu has made birdie or better on roughly 24.6% of his holes this season. He averages approximately 4.26 birdies per round. His par-five birdie-or-better rate exceeds 52%. A driving average beyond 308 yards creates shorter approaches throughout TPC Twin Cities. That advantage becomes especially valuable when heat and moisture keep the greens receptive.
The supporting numbers also explain the 80-to-1 price. Yu has lost about -0.02 strokes per round on approach and -0.33 putting this season. Those figures describe an explosive scorer without weekly control over the two categories deciding most shootouts. His ceiling arrives in concentrated bursts, rather than Harman’s steadier accumulation.
That volatility belongs on this card. Yu recently finished T15 at the John Deere Classic with three rounds of 66. He already owns a Tour victory, and Friday’s 66 confirmed that this week’s conditions suit his aggression. One hot approach round could turn his length into a parade of wedges and manageable eagle chances.
+8000 carries an implied probability near 1.2%. The 0.40u stake accepts the instability while respecting the ceiling. Yu must attack early because pars will lose ground throughout Saturday. Few players at this price can manufacture birdies through so many channels.
Kurt Kitayama +11000: 0.25u
Kurt Kitayama sits nine behind after consecutive rounds of 68 and 69. Under ordinary circumstances, that gap would remove him from serious consideration. TPC Twin Cities and Kitayama’s history here create an unusually specific exception.
Kitayama entered last year’s weekend eight shots behind. He answered with rounds of 60 and 65, reached 23-under, and won the tournament. That performance followed a T6 finish in 2024. Across his past two 3M Opens, Kitayama has finished a combined 36-under. Course history never guarantees another charge, although this record shows undeniable visual comfort and strategic fluency.
The current ball-striking supports the historical case. Kitayama ranks around 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach at approximately +0.60 per round this season. He arrived with 11 consecutive made cuts, four top-10 finishes, and a runner-up result at the Genesis Invitational. His 68-69 start has been steady, though entirely insufficient for Kim’s established pace.
This ticket requires a narrow outcome. Kitayama needs another Saturday round in the low 60s, followed by help from the leaders. A 66 probably leaves him too far behind. The +11000 price implies about a 0.9% winning probability.
The 0.25u stake purchases elite current irons and the tournament’s clearest comeback blueprint. Kitayama remains nine back, with considerable traffic between himself and Kim. Still, few triple-digit options combine top-10 approach play with demonstrated ability to shoot 60 on this exact property.
Tom Kim +14500: 0.25u
Tom Kim owns the most compelling talent-to-price relationship among the deepest options. He sits nine behind after rounds of 68 and 69, sharing Kitayama’s difficult starting point. The market still offers +14500 on a four-time Tour winner producing one of the season’s strongest approach campaigns.
Kim ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach at roughly +0.66 per round. His putter has hovered slightly below neutral, while his overall game ranks near the Tour’s top 25. He has made 15 of 18 cuts and posted five top-25 finishes. Those numbers describe a golfer creating elite chances without converting enough of them.
The ceiling appeared at the Scottish Open. Kim won at 17-under after rounds of 65, 66, 68, and 64. That closing round ended a victory drought longer than 1,000 days. It also restored evidence that his precision can survive Sunday pressure. Kim finished T28 here last season, gaining useful familiarity without producing a result likely to shorten this price.
Saturday demands urgency. Kim probably needs 63 or 64, then another excellent round Sunday. His modest driving length leaves less room for indifferent wedges on the longer holes. The iron play must create repeated looks inside 15 feet. The putter must finally turn volume into separation.
+14500 implies roughly a 0.7% chance. The 0.25u allocation treats Kim as an elite-tail outcome within the portfolio. His deficit remains severe, yet his underlying approach number exceeds everyone else on this card. Proven winners carrying top-five iron play rarely remain available at 145-to-1.
Kevin Streelman +22500: 0.10u
Kevin Streelman receives the smallest position, though his number deserves more respect than a random 225-to-1 ticket. He sits seven behind after rounds of 67 and 68. That places him alongside Matsuyama, Glover, and Yu, while the market prices him far beyond all three.
The season-long profile remains modest. Streelman has hovered near neutral on approach at roughly -0.01 strokes per round. He has gained about +0.08 putting. Streelman has made approximately half his cuts, recorded one top-25 finish, and peaked with a T8 in Puerto Rico. Nothing there demands a serious stake.
TPC Twin Cities supplies the argument. Streelman finished T2 here in 2023 at 17-under. He navigated the sightlines and water while sustaining enough birdie volume. His opening 67-68 this week suggests that comfort has returned. Two Tour victories also give him more closing experience than most players available beyond 200-to-1.
The path remains unforgiving. Streelman probably needs 64 Saturday and another mid-60s round Sunday. At 47, he lacks the raw power carried by Yu or Kitayama. His route depends on fairways, precise approaches, and a putting week materially better than his ordinary baseline.
+22500 implies only a 0.44% chance. A 0.10u stake keeps the exposure proportionate while preserving enormous upside if the leaders compress. Streelman could make this price appear absurd with four early birdies. He could also disappear with one poor nine. That combination belongs at the portfolio’s edge, where the potential return remains meaningful and the risk stays contained.
