Starting at 7:05 p.m. ET across today’s 15-game MLB slate, the Atlanta Braves will face off with the Baltimore Orioles. These teams opened up their series yesterday, which finished as a 7-6 victory by the Braves. It took 10 innings to reach this result, with both teams putting up a combined seven runs in the 10th inning as a spark of excitement.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Orioles enter as narrow -112 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Braves hold -107 odds of getting the win and +149 odds of winning on the -1.5 run line. The run total is set at 9.5.
Braves at Orioles prediction, preview
The Atlanta Braves got off to a red-hot start to the season, extending their record to 45-21, but they have had some struggles in recent weeks. They enter tonight’s matchup with a 61-42 record on the season, and they have seen their lead in the NL East narrow to 5.5 games. Atlanta is working its way back on the right path, going 6-2 since the All-Star break, and it enters on a three-game winning streak overall. On the season, the Braves have gone 56-47 to the run line, and the run total is 51-46-6 to the over/under.
Bryce Elder will be getting the start for the Braves tonight. The 27-year-old has made 19 starts already this season and enters with a 6-6 record, a 4.06 ERA, a 1.233 WHIP, 17 home runs allowed and 90 strikeouts tallied across his 108.2 innings pitched. Elder has struggled a bit since a strong start to the season, as he is posting a 6.33 ERA across his past 10 starts. The former All-Star has faced this Orioles lineup in 21 at-bats in his career, limiting it to slash lines of .238/.304/.429, with Pete Alonso having the most success.
At the plate, the Braves are slashing a collective .250/.316/.420 with a .736 OPS on the season. Michael Harris II leads the team with 111 hits, along with 20 doubles, 19 home runs and 61 RBIs. Matt Olson boasts a team-leading 27 home runs and 63 RBIs. Ozzie Albies is the lone other player with 106+ hits, while Austin Riley and Mauricio Dubon also have 10+ home runs. Collectively, the Braves rank eighth in hits, sixth in runs, fourth in home runs and 23rd in strikeouts.
The Baltimore Orioles hold a 50-54 record on the season, which slots them at fourth place in the AL East. They have lost three of their past four matchups, and are 4-3 since the All-Star break. On the season overall, Baltimore has gone 52-52 to the run line, and the run total is 54-47-3 to the over/under.
Brandon Young will be making his 17th start of the season for the Orioles. The 27-year-old enters with an 8-2 record, a 3.25 ERA, a 1.314 WHIP, nine home runs allowed and 74 strikeouts tallied across his 91.1 innings pitched. Mauricio Dubon is the lone player in this Braves lineup to have faced off with Young, and he is 0-for-5 with a strikeout to this point. This season has been a massive step forward from last year for Young, as he went 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA and -0.7 WAR.
The Orioles are slashing a collective .239/.322/.398 with a .720 OPS. Pete Alonso headlines the production with 97 hits, 20 doubles, 21 home runs and 66 RBIs. Taylor Ward adds 97 hits and leads the American League with 80 walks, while Gunnar Henderson contributes 95 hits, 17 home runs and 44 RBIs. Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo contribute a combined 29 home runs. As a team, the Orioles rank 20th in hits, 12th in runs, 15th in home runs and third in strikeouts.
Braves at Orioles pick, best bet
It was a 3-3 score throughout the first nine innings yesterday before both these lineups came alive in extra innings. Atlanta ultimately outscored Baltimore 4-3 in the 10th inning to secure the win.
Heading into the second matchup between these two teams, I am backing the Orioles to even up the series 1-1. Brandon Young has been impressive this season for Baltimore. He has not allowed more than four earned runs in any start this season and posts an 8-2 record overall. Young has also thrown 7.0 innings in back-to-back starts, and this will be the first look that Atlanta has had at him.
Bryce Elder has largely been encouraging this year, but he has finished with a negative WAR in back-to-back seasons before this with 6.52 and 5.30 ERAs. Elder enters with a 4.06 ERA on the season, but he has started to come unraveled as of late. The former All-Star has a 7.65 ERA over his past eight starts with 12 home runs across this stretch. He has allowed two or more earned runs in all eight of these starts after holding opponents to fewer than this in six of his first 11 starts this year.
The command inconsistencies of Elder are my largest concern for this matchup, and I have not seen enough encouraging flashes to look the other way. He has been bleeding runs in recent starts and, even with it being a pitcher-friendly ballpark, there is enough talent on this Orioles roster to exploit this. Pete Alonso has notched one home run and 5 RBIs against Eder in 14 at-bats and will help lead the charge. Baltimore also impressed in this matchup last year, sweeping this Braves team, and it is 5-1 across its past six matchups. Atlanta has not had the level of bite it showed at the start of the season, and I am backing the Orioles to take advantage of this with a win tonight as they put runs on Elder at a rate that the Braves’ bats cannot match.
Best bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-112)
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