Cincinnati reaches Busch Stadium at 47-54 after winning five of its last 10 games. The Reds scored 39 runs while batting .244/.300/.467 with 21 homers during that stretch. St. Louis went 4-6 with a .214/.287/.294 line, five homers, and 34 runs. Thursday’s 10-6 loss extended the Cardinals’ slide to six defeats across eight games. Cincinnati rested Thursday, while St. Louis lost its scheduled off day to the Arizona makeup game. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cardinals vs. Reds prediction, preview
Rhett Lowder remains the game’s weakest pitcher, carrying a 5.75 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through 72 innings. His .357 xwOBA, 90.6 mph contact, and 9.5% barrel rate validate the damage. Lowder owns a 7.92 ERA across seven recent appearances and allowed eight runs Saturday at Coors Field. Dustin May offers stronger underlying work through a .302 xwOBA and 6.7% barrel rate. However, May has posted a 5.17 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 13 walks across his last seven starts.
Cincinnati’s current power creates several routes toward four runs. Elly De La Cruz owns 94.0 mph contact, 51.5% hard hits, 14.8% barrels, and a .365 xwOBA. Tyler Stephenson carries 90.8 mph contact, 11.6% barrels, and a .344 xwOBA against a .315 actual mark. Stephenson recently homered twice at Coors, while Sal Stewart added a 456-foot homer during that same victory. Stewart has gone 3-for-23 since the break, but his 14.6% barrel rate supports another quick correction. JJ Bleday has added three homers across nine games, extending Cincinnati’s damage beyond its three headline bats.
St. Louis still owns enough contact to punish Lowder’s command and weak sinker. Jordan Walker has produced four homers, 19 RBI, and an .890 OPS across his last 24 games. His 93.9 mph contact, 50.5% hard-hit rate, and 14.1% barrels support every part of that surge. Alec Burleson has hit .333 with 13 hits across 10 games, although none left the park. JJ Wetherholt has hit .195 during that span, but his two homers include Wednesday’s decisive 409-foot shot. Lars Nootbaar owns a .226 average with one homer and seven RBI across 10 games.
Reds vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
The bullpen and schedule create Cincinnati’s strongest secondary advantage. St. Louis used Ryne Stanek, Riley O’Brien, Justin Bruihl, and Matt Svanson during Thursday’s loss. O’Brien has thrown 63 pitches across three recent appearances, while Svanson needed 37 pitches Thursday. Cincinnati’s principal relievers all received Thursday off, although Emilio Pagán and Brock Burke carry meaningful weekly workloads. Trade-deadline pressure surrounds both clubs, with May’s future and Cincinnati’s seven impending free agents under evaluation. Showers near first pitch and 69-degree air should reduce ordinary carry and create delay risk.
St. Louis -156 asks May and a worked bullpen to overcome baseball’s colder recent offense. Cincinnati +129 offers value, but Lowder’s left-handed weakness creates unnecessary exposure. Under 8 receives help from Busch Stadium and the forecast, yet both starters have allowed recent traffic. Cardinals over 4.5 costs an unacceptable -140, while Cincinnati’s four-run threshold sits at a playable price. The Reds can reach May for two or three runs before attacking St. Louis’ compromised bridge.
Best bet: Reds TT o3.5 runs at -115, playable through -120.
Projected score: Reds 4, Cardinals 3.
Best bet: Reds TT o3.5 runs (-115) vs. Cardinals
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
