The New York Yankees have finally re-found their form over the last couple of weeks and are gaining ground in the AL East picture. Starting with Friday night, they’re in Philadelphia to take on a Phillies group that has emerged from the All-Star break in sluggish fashion. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET tonight.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Yankees vs. Phillies game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Phillies prediction, preview
The Yankees underwent a miserable stretch through late June until mid July, but they seem to have regained their footing since then. They took four straight wins heading into the All-Star break and are 3-3 coming out of the pause. Things have looked much better and they’re now 57-45 on the campaign with a +88 run differential, sitting two games shy of the AL East lead. They get a date tonight against a Phillies squad that’s won just two of their four games since the season resumed, now holding a 56-47 record on the year with a -15 run differential. That has them 4.5 games back of first in the NL East.
Emerging ace Cam Schlittler (9-6) gets the start for New York today. He brings a 2.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into this game with 145 strikeouts across 123.0 IP, good for a 29.7% K%. He’s also kept the BB% way down at 5.1% while still bringing a 91st-percentile chase rate as well. The Yankees’ bullpen sits second in ERA at 3.06 with a 1.20 WHIP and a 13.7% K-BB%.
For the home side, LHP Jesus Luzardo (9-4) takes the mount. He’s also delivered a quality campaign with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and his 29.6% K% is also stellar thanks to 143 Ks across 115.1 IP. He’s been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this season, keeping exit velo down and forcing more ground balls than the average arm. The Philadelphia bullpen comes in at 23rd in ERA with a 4.43 mark, plus a 1.35 WHIP and a stellar 16.5% K-BB%.
The bats do make this an even more interesting matchup. The Yankees are generally better at the plate, ranking seventh in OPS at .735 on the year with the second-best ISO (.184) and second-most homers (147). They have an 0.42 BB/K ratio with a 10.0% BB%, though the 24.2% K% is high. And against left-handed pitching, they slash .227/.329/.437 for a .737 OPS.
Looking at the Phillies, the numbers are dragged down somewhat by the early season struggles, but they’re 23rd in overall OPS at .705 while relying heavily on slugging. The .166 ISO sits ninth and their 135 homers rank fifth, but an 0.33 BB/K ratio is quite poor behind a 7.9% BB% and a 23.8% K%. Against right-handed pitchers, they have a .240/.303/.412 slash line for an improved .715 OPS.
Yankees vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Phillies as -142 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Yankees trailing as +118 underdogs. The run total sits at just 7.5 combined runs.
Typically, this would be a matchup where the over looks good. Given the pitchers though, we’re targeting the under and hoping for a 4-3 finish or better. Schlittler’s 2.20 ERA is the best in the AL among qualified pitchers. He’s conceded more than two earned runs just three times since the start of June, and he’s backed by a stellar bullpen in terms of run suppression, too. Luzardo has also kept scoring down at a respectable level and is in a very impressive stretch right now, allowing just two earned runs across three July starts so far while giving up more than two in just one start since June 1 as well. These are awesome arms, so even with some power on both sides, I like a lower-scoring outcome here.
