Friday brings a deep hitting card at the end of a frustrating stretch for home run bettors. The contact has remained loud, but too many barrels have turned into line drives, wall shots, and doubles. Balls carrying 100-plus mph keep finding alleys instead of seats, making total bases the cleaner way to attack form.
This Friday board leans into that change. Each selection combines recent contact quality, favorable pitch shapes, strong lineup placement, and more than one cashing path. Some hitters can clear two bases with one extra-base hit. Others carry enough plate appearances and bat-to-ball stability to reach the number through two singles. On a card this deep, that flexibility feels more trustworthy than chasing another stubborn home run board.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Shea Langeliers 2+ total bases | +100 | Batting third in the slate’s strongest scoring environment gives Langeliers’ 23 homers, .830 OPS, 91.9 mph EV, 15.1% barrels, .365 xwOBA, and 1.99 projected total bases maximum exposure against Zebby Matthews’ 5.40 ERA, 4.78 xERA, 12.6% barrel rate, and .459 xSLG allowed. |
| Esmerlyn Valdez 2+ total bases | +120 | Valdez has detonated for 13 homers through 32 games, a .370 average and 27 RBI across 22, plus 70% hard contact, 60% blasts, and three homers among 10 recent BIPs, while Matthew Boyd has yielded 90 mph EV, 45.3% hard hits, 10.1% barrels, and a .333 xwOBA. |
| Munetaka Murakami 2+ total bases | +140 | Murakami’s quiet box scores conceal 70% hard contact, 50% blasts, 30% barrels, and 70% fly balls across his last 10 BIPs, extending a season profile with 93.8 mph EV, 58.1% hard hits, 19.1% barrels, and a .366 xwOBA into Spencer Arrighetti’s .344 xwOBA allowed. |
| Joc Pederson 2+ total bases | +135 | Three pulled barrels across Pederson’s last 10 BIPs give his projected leadoff spot, 92 mph EV, 49.2% hard-hit rate, and .356 xwOBA a direct power route against Bryce Miller, while current Rangers have already produced a .379 average, .521 wOBA, and .516 xSLG in 34 plate appearances against him. |
| Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases | -135 | Alvarez brings a .500/.581/.962 seven-game surge, eight homers across 15, 94.6 mph EV, 53.2% hard hits, 19.2% barrels, and five barrels among 10 recent BIPs into a matchup where Houston’s current lineup owns a .308 average, .363 wOBA, and .455 xSLG against Davis Martin. |
In-depth analysis below.
Prop bet analysis
Shea Langeliers 2+ total bases (+100)
Shea Langeliers receives the best overall scoring environment and the most vulnerable opposing starter. Langeliers enters Friday batting .263 with 23 homers, 51 RBI, and an .830 OPS. His authority remains backed by 91.9 mph average exit velocity, 45.3% hard hits, 15.1% barrels, and a .365 xwOBA. His 19.6-degree average launch angle also fits this market beautifully. Langeliers has produced a 108.4 mph homer and a recent bases-clearing double, showing power across multiple pitch locations. A confirmed third-place lineup spot protects his plate-appearance ceiling behind Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom.
The matchup supplies the remaining push. Zebby Matthews carries a 5.40 ERA after allowing eight runs across his previous 10.2 innings. Opponents have generated 90.5 mph average exit velocity, 38.9% hard contact, 12.6% barrels, and a .459 xSLG. Matthews owns a 4.78 xERA, 19.5% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate. Langeliers’ model projection sits at 1.99 total bases with 1.02 expected hits and a 24% home-run probability. Target Field brings 78-degree weather, while the Athletics average 5.39 runs per game. Langeliers has three homers among his last 10 batted balls. He can cash through one swing, while his expected-hit projection preserves a multi-hit route.
Esmerlyn Valdez 2+ total bases (+120)
Esmerlyn Valdez has turned his first major-league summer into one of baseball’s loudest power arrivals. The 22-year-old owns 13 homers through 32 games after reaching 12 homers and 31 RBI within his first 31. Valdez has batted .370 with 27 RBI across his past 22 games, repeatedly supplying Pittsburgh’s missing middle-order force. His full-season contact supports the production: 93.4 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard hits, 29.7% barrels, and a .551 xSLG. He also owns a .454 wOBA despite carrying a .220 xBA and 38.2% strikeout rate. That is an extreme power-first shape, but the fourth-place lineup spot protects his opportunity volume.
His last 10 batted balls include 70% hard contact, 60% blasts, 20% barrels, three homers, and a 60% fly-ball rate. Matthew Boyd carries a 4.15 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, although his recent results have improved since returning from injury. The underlying contact remains attackable. Boyd has allowed 90 mph average exit velocity, 45.3% hard hits, 10.1% barrels, and a .333 xwOBA. PNC Park lowers the home-run ceiling, while inward wind adds another modest obstacle. Valdez still owns two viable routes through a double, homer, or multi-hit game against a left-hander. His elevation, impact, and lineup placement outweigh Pittsburgh’s poor team record against southpaws.
Joc Pederson 2+ total bases (+135)
Joc Pederson draws the toughest pitcher among these five selections, although his recent swing still earns a place here. Pederson owns 17 homers with a .244 average, .339 on-base percentage, and steady left-handed power. His Statcast line includes 92 mph average exit velocity, 49.2% hard hits, 11.8% barrels, and a .458 xSLG. His expected average sits at .257, while his actual and expected wOBA both land at .356. Pederson’s last 10 batted balls produced 60% hard contact, 30% barrels, and three pulled barrels. That concentrated pull-side shape creates a direct extra-base route inside Globe Life Field.
Bryce Miller presents the obvious resistance. He has suppressed opponents to 86.4 mph average contact, 29.6% hard hits, 7% barrels, and a .256 wOBA. Those numbers make this a tougher assignment than the other four matchups. Pederson still gains value from his projected leadoff spot, increasing his chances of a fourth or fifth plate appearance. His .257 xBA sits above his actual average, while an 11.8% walk rate confirms strong zone recognition. Pederson’s path leans more heavily toward one damaging swing than two singles. His 30% recent barrel rate and three pulled barrels support taking that calculated risk. The price should remain longer because Miller’s season has been excellent
Munetaka Murakami 2+ total bases (+140)
Munetaka Murakami represents the clearest gap between recent box scores and current contact quality. He owns a .230 average, .375 on-base percentage, .522 slugging percentage, 20 homers, and a 149 OPS+. Those numbers already describe an excellent first major-league season. His Statcast profile looks even stronger, featuring 93.8 mph average exit velocity, 58.1% hard hits, and 19.1% barrels. Murakami has also produced a .495 xSLG, .366 xwOBA, and 60.4% hard contact against four-seamers. The primary concern remains his 33.3% strikeout rate, which limits the dependable two-single route.
The last 10 batted balls strengthen the rebound argument. Murakami produced 70% hard contact, 50% blasts, 30% barrels, three homers, and a 70% fly-ball rate. Spencer Arrighetti has limited opponents to 87.5 mph average contact and 30.9% hard hits, creating a legitimate matchup concern. His .344 xwOBA allowed sits above the .316 wOBA, leaving more vulnerability than those contact averages suggest. Murakami has also slugged .618 against four-seamers and .700 against curveballs this season. Those are the two pitches highlighted by today’s recent-arsenal screen. His fly-ball shape and elite barrel production compensate for the swing-and-miss exposure. Recent results have cooled, but the swing itself remains authoritative.
Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases (-135)
Yordan Alvarez enters Friday with the cleanest combination of recent form, season-long authority, and multiple paths toward two bases. He has collected at least two hits in seven of his past nine games. Alvarez also homered three times during Houston’s sweep of Miami, finishing the series with his MLB-leading 34th homer. His full-season contact remains vicious: 94.6 mph average exit velocity, 53.2% hard hits, 19.2% barrels, and a .721 xSLG. The plate discipline completes the profile, with a 17% strikeout rate, 14.8% walk rate, and .477 xwOBA. He also carries a .328 average and 77 RBI.
The immediate contact looks even stronger than those elite season numbers. Alvarez’s last 10 batted balls produced 70% hard contact, 50% barrels, 50% blasts, and a 60% fly-ball rate. Davis Martin owns a sharp 3.31 ERA and 3.06 FIP, but his contact profile creates openings. Martin has allowed 90 mph average contact and a 44% hard-hit rate across 106 innings. His four-seamer, sinker, cutter, and curveball also match the pitches Alvarez has punished during this recent surge. One extra-base hit clears the number, while Alvarez’s current bat-to-ball form supports the two-single route.
