Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics prediction, pick for MLB on Friday 7/24/26

The Athletics enter Target Field at 43-59 after losing eight of their last 10 games. Minnesota sits 51-53 after splitting four games in Cleveland and winning Thursday’s 12-inning finale. Recent records conceal a much narrower offensive gap. The Athletics hit .257/.323/.419 with 12 homers and 39 runs across 10 games. Minnesota scored the same 39 runs while batting .238/.299/.369 with eight homers. The Athletics rested Thursday after their Arizona series ended Wednesday. Minnesota used seven pitchers, played 12 innings, and traveled home afterward. Both clubs need this series, although Minnesota carries greater deadline and postseason pressure. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Minnesota Twins and the Athletics.

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Twins vs. Athletics prediction, preview

Jacob Lopez’s 6.64 ERA makes Minnesota’s price appear more reasonable than his contact profile permits. Lopez owns a 1.73 WHIP, 49 strikeouts, and 36 walks across 59⅔ innings. His 17.4% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate create traffic and limit his workload. However, opponents have averaged only 85.2 mph with 31.4% hard contact and 4.6% barrels. His .371 wOBA allowed towers above a .305 xwOBA, while his 3.88 xERA sits 2.76 runs below reality. Zebby Matthews brings the louder danger through 90.5 mph contact, 12.6% barrels, and a .459 xSLG. Matthews owns a 10.54 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 21 hits, nine walks, and 16 earned runs across three starts. His four-seamer allows a .373 xwOBA and generates only 13% whiffs despite 37.6% usage. Matthews’ cutter carries a .427 xwOBA, while his sinker sits at .480.

Jacob Wilson gives the Athletics their hottest current bat after collecting 17 hits across his last 10 games. Wilson has batted .405 with three homers, six RBI, and seven runs during that stretch. His 83.7 mph season contact and 2.7% barrel rate make the homer spike difficult to sustain. Tyler Soderstrom supplies the steadier damage through 90.2 mph contact, 44.6% hard hits, and 10.1% barrels. Soderstrom has hit .294 with three homers, seven RBI, and seven runs across 10 games. Shea Langeliers owns the lineup’s strongest power foundation. He carries 91.9 mph contact, 45.3% hard hits, 15.1% barrels, and a .365 xwOBA. His 19.6-degree launch angle directly attacks Matthews’ elevated air-contact profile. Jeff McNeil adds another contact-heavy at-bat ahead of Soderstrom and Langeliers. That top group can punish Matthews before Oakland’s depleted lower order becomes exposed.

Minnesota still owns several credible scoring paths against Lopez’s command and fly-ball shape. Byron Buxton returned from a hip strain with 25 homers, a .904 OPS, and the lineup’s best one-swing ceiling. Trevor Larnach has hit .348/.408/.580 with seven doubles and three homers across the last four weeks. His .370 wOBA exceeds a .342 xwOBA, while his 87.1 mph contact limits the long-term power case. Luke Keaschall brings a 15.3% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate, and 90.4% zone-contact rate. His 84.6 mph contact and 2.9% barrels make him more table-setter than damage source. Royce Lewis has hit .194 with one homer across his last nine games. Lopez has allowed a 2.78 ERA during the first lineup turn and 5.06 during the second. Minnesota’s strongest scoring window should arrive once his pitch count and changeup command begin deteriorating.

Athletics vs. Twins pick, best bet

Minnesota’s bullpen worked 29 innings across the last seven days and then absorbed Thursday’s extended game. Tommy Nance has thrown 74 recent pitches, while Yoendrys Gómez, Kody Funderburk, and Andrew Morris each exceeded 50. Taylor Rogers made three appearances during the same window and worked the 11th inning Thursday. The Athletics rested, although their bullpen still owns a 5.40 ERA across 25 recent innings. That relief volatility weakens the Athletics’ moneyline far more than their scoring markets. Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer remain unavailable for the Athletics. Minnesota could also miss Victor Caratini after Thursday’s knee contusion. Target Field should feature temperatures near 79 degrees with modest summer carry. Matthews’ 61.1% air-contact rate and 20.8% pulled-air rate make those conditions more useful for Athletics power.

Minnesota -149 overstates its starting-pitching advantage and requires a worked bullpen to protect another Matthews start. Athletics +123 offers value, although Lopez’s walks and Oakland’s relief group create too much late-game exposure. Over 9.5 needs Minnesota to solve a pitcher allowing exceptionally weak contact. Twins over 4.5 at -140 carries an unacceptable price for a lineup producing limited recent power. The clearest matchup belongs to the Athletics against Matthews and Minnesota’s taxed middle relief. Matthews has surrendered seven homers across five starts and owns a 6.41 ERA during that span. Wilson and McNeil can create traffic before Soderstrom or Langeliers converts his fastball-family mistakes.

Best bet: Athletics TT o4.5 runs at -110, playable through -120.

Projected score: Athletics 5, Twins 4.

Best bet: Athletics TT o4.5 runs (-110) at Twins

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