The Cleveland Guardians received some reinforcements earlier this week when superstar Jose Ramirez re-entered the lineup following an extended absence due to a hand fracture. With the third baseman back and swinging the bat, he and his club now look to build some momentum in the second half. Today, they kick off a weekend series against the Tampa Bay Rays, who remain atop their own division but have seen their margin grow slimmer. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Guardians vs. Rays game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Rays prediction, preview
The Guardians keep flirting with the top spot in the AL Central, but after dropping back-to-back outings, they’re now 54-50 on the season with a -6 run differential. They’re also just 6-6 since the All-Star break. As for the Rays, they continue to lead the AL East at 59-43. The +30 differential also looks good, and they shook off a sweep out of the break but are still 3-5 since the second half began.
The Guardians start LHP Joey Cantillo (8-5). The 26-year-old brings a 3.74 ERA into this game with plus-strikeout upside thanks to 112 over 106.0 IP, good for a 24.6% K%. However, his WHIP is 1.42 thanks to an 11.4% BB% that ranks in the 17th percentile. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 3.69 ERA that ranks sixth, also amassing a 1.31 WHIP with an excellent 16.1% K-BB%.
Fellow LHP Shane McClanahan (8-6) starts for the Rays tonight amidst an excellent season. Through 18 outings, the veteran southpaw has a 3.16 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. His 85 strikeouts in 91.0 IP won’t particularly impress for a 22.5% K%, but they’re solid, as is an 8.2% BB%. Tampa Bay’s relievers have a 4.13 ERA that falls 17th, but a 1.21 WHIP is better and a 13.5% K-BB% is quite solid.
The clear edge belongs to the Rays when it comes to offense, though. They’re eighth in OPS this season at .734 and average 4.50 runs per game. No club has a better K% than their 18.9% mark, which sets up an 0.48 BB/K ratio and keeps the OBP up. Despite a .142 ISO that falls second-to-last and 103 homers that sit 26th around the MLB, this is still a very productive group of bats. However, there should be a modicum of concern since they have a .697 OPS against lefties with a .252/.323/.373 slash line.
The Guardians aren’t stellar at the plate themselves. Their .687 OPS tumbles to 27th in the MLB and they produce just 4.01 runs per game. The .143 ISO is third-to-last and the 103 homers sit tied with the Rays near the bottom of the leaderboard, too. An 0.43 BB/K ratio is just slightly above average, with a 9.7% BB% but a 22.3% K% that’s ticked up slightly in recent weeks. As for the split against right-handers, they slash .236/.313/.388 for a .700 OPS.
Guardians vs. Rays pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as -139 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Guardians set as +115 road underdogs. The run total sits at only 7.5 combined runs.
This could be a little bit of an ugly one since Tampa Bay struggles against left-handed pitching, but I still think the Rays get the job done today. Their plate process is excellent and Cantillo’s control issues could play a role here, and they avoid strikeouts as well to neutralize one of the better parts of his game. There’s a big difference in overall quality between their offense and that of the Cleveland as well, so while it may be a lower-scoring matchup in the early stages, the later stages are where Tampa Bay could truly get out in front. With decent value on an outright win for the home club, that’s the direction I’ll be going here.
