Baseball fans are in for a treat over the next few days, especially those who support an NL Central club. The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates start a new series on Friday night at PNC Park, pitting two of the best offenses in the MLB against each other. There should be fireworks in this one, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cubs vs. Pirates game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Since the All-Star break, the Cubs are just 3-3 after winning a series against the Minnesota Twins and dropping their more recent one against the Detroit Tigers. The overall record still looks good at 57-45 with a +65 run differential, but it’d be nice to see some progress in the division standings at seven games shy of first. That’s what this series provides, to an extent – the Pirates are 53-50 and four games back of Chicago with a differential of +51 on the year. If Pittsburgh can get a couple of wins here or even a sweep, it could drastically improve the club’s chances of making the postseason.
The starter for the Cubs tonight is LHP Matthew Boyd (6-1), who’s put forth a solid campaign in 10 games. He brings a 4.15 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP into this contest with 51 strikeouts over 52.0 IP, good for a 23.5% K%. He also has a 6.5% BB%, but he’s allowed fairly hard contact overall when batters do put the bat on the ball. The Chicago bullpen ranks 14th in ERA at 4.07 with a 1.32 WHIP and a 12.3% K-BB%.
It’ll be RHP Jared Jones (2-1) for the Pirates. He’s tossed just 40.0 innings over the span of nine starts, but has a 4.05 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP on the year. Plus, his K% sits at an impressive 90th-percentile 29.4% thanks to 48 punchouts, while the BB% of 7.4% is still better than average. However, Pittsburgh’s relief staff slots in at 22nd in ERA with a 4.42 mark, plus a 1.40 WHIP and a 12.6% K-BB%.
This is a very underrated pitching matchup, but how do the bats stack up? We’re so glad you asked. These are undoubtedly two of the best lineups in baseball, with Chicago fourth in OPS (.751) and Pittsburgh third in the same stat (.763). The Cubs have a slight edge at eighth in ISO (.167) while their opponent ranks 14th (.163), but the Pirates have 132 homers on the year to the Cubbies’ 128. There’s similar production in many facets, but the key difference is the plate approach. Chicago paces the sport in BB/K ratio at 0.52 with an MLB-best 11.1% BB% and a 21.6% K%; Pittsburgh comes in at 0.39 for the ratio with a 9.4% BB% and a 24.3% K%.
For what it’s worth, it’s also interesting that both clubs are on the lesser side of their splits. Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs slash .238/.331/.406 for a .737 OPS. Against lefties, the Pirates have a line of .251/.313/.402 for a .715 cumulative mark.
Cubs vs. Pirates pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Pirates as -117 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Cubs slightly behind as -103 underdogs. The run total sits at just eight combined runs.
Usually I’d go with a game line here, and I do admittedly want to take the over on the run total. These are two great offensive teams, and though they’re on the wrong side of the splits against the respective starters, I like the chances of the over since it cashed in four of the seven matchups so far this year. I’d lean towards that bet, but there’s one more I like today as well. Ian Happ is 5-for-12 in his career against Jones with a double, a triple and a homer. After recording a hit in four-of-six games since the All-Star break and three consecutive matchups, the -141 value on him to record another today makes for a good builder play, but he’s an even better pick for an extra base hit at +195 odds.
