The long days without football are just about over, with the NFL season now right around the corner. Expectations are building for the 2026 season as the Seattle Seahawks begin their journey to repeat as Super Bowl champions, while plenty of exciting young talent has joined the league.
DraftKings Sportsbook has established plenty of options in the futures market ahead of next season.
This article will take a look at my top three win total over/unders ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
Top 2026 NFL Win Total Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Denver Broncos Over 9.5 Wins (-115)
If it had not been for an unfortunate right ankle fracture for Bo Nix in the Divisional Round victory over the Bills, we may have been watching the Denver Broncos in last year’s Super Bowl. Instead, they will return with a chip on their shoulders and plenty to like about the roster. Denver went 10-7 in 2024 and then 14-3 last season. They will continue to lean on one of the best defenses in the league, which ranked third in opponent points allowed last year. They should receive a jolt from new offensive coordinator Davis Webb. Denver also took a big swing to bring in Jaylen Waddle in this offseason and upgrade their passing weapons.
The AFC West is a tough division, and a major reason why this number is set at 9.5 wins. But it should not inspire the same level of fear as has been the case in recent seasons. Patrick Mahomes will be returning from an ACL tear, and the Broncos will open up their season against Kansas City, as well as face them again in Week 8. The Las Vegas Raiders also are still working through their own growing pains after a 3-14 record in 2025, with not a ton of reason for optimism for major improvement. While the Los Angeles Chargers provide a level of competence, they are also beatable. In addition, the Broncos have intriguing opportunities for wins outside of the division, as they will face off with teams like the Jaguars, the Panthers, the Jets, the Dolphins and the Steelers.
A high-level defense provides a high-floor for expectations, and Nix proved plenty of people wrong with his play last year. Even more encouraging, Nix and the Broncos had a stellar track record in producing come-from-behind wins and not blinking when they were in unfavorable spots. Denver has won 10+ games in back-to-back seasons and should hold the same level of optimism for this year. Expect Denver’s unsatisfactory end to last year to keep a fire lit under them and for 10 wins to be a comfortable bar to clear based on the talent they have. I also am eyeing backing the Broncos to win over 10.5 games at +160 odds.
Indianapolis Colts Under 7.5 Wins (+115)
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off back-to-back 8-9 seasons after going 9-8 in 2023, but I am backing them to take a step back and finish with under 7.5 wins this season. Quarterback play has been an issue for the organization in recent years, and the Colts found some stability with Daniel Jones playing the best football of his career last season. But Jones saw his campaign end in December due to a torn Achilles.
The Colts got off to a surprising 8-2 start last season, where they looked like a team that could make some postseason noise. But there felt to be some fool’s gold in this strong record, with the team’s production largely falling off a cliff while Jones was still on the field. The former Duke product went 1-4 over his final five starts with an 84.2 passer rating, six touchdowns, and five interceptions across this stretch. Indianapolis lost seven consecutive games to close the season.
It was an impressive start to the season for Jones, but this is the same guy who has been plagued by turnover issues throughout his career. Especially coming off a torn Achilles, I am not ready to believe he has fully turned his career around. The Colts do not have the infrastructure to make up for this, with Indianapolis ranking 21st in points allowed last year. There is fair belief in every other team in the division, too. The Jaguars and Texans are coming off 12+ wins last year, while the Titans seem poised to take a step forward. The injury to Daniel Jones is a bigger X-factor than many have acknowledged. Expect some regression from the Colts this year and for 7.5 wins to be too high of a bar for the team to clear.
Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins (-115)
After back-to-back seasons with 12+ wins, including a 15-2 record in 2024, the Detroit Lions took a notable step back last season to go 9-8 and miss the playoffs outright. Detroit battled a tough schedule, and their defense was ravaged by injuries all season. They lost four of their final six games to fall just shy of qualifying for the postseason and finished the campaign ranked 22nd in opponent points allowed.
This is a loaded offense that is a near guarantee to finish among the league leaders in scoring, and this has proven to be the case in recent years. When their defense is at full-strength, it is more than competent, and finished the 2024 season ranked seventh in opponent points allowed. As long as they do not deal with the same level of injuries, they will be in position for a much-improved output in the 2026 season. Dan Campbell is a master motivator, and there is sure to be a fire lit under the Lions after they failed to qualify for the postseason last year.
The NFC North is a tough division with the Bears, Vikings, and Packers each hopeful for the postseason, as well. But Detroit will face an easier schedule compared to last year with some favorable matchups outside the division, including playing the Saints, Jets, Panthers and Cardinals each across the first five weeks. The Lions won an NFL-best 27 games in 2023 and 2024 and expect them to return to this level of success after a season in which injuries played a major factor.
