NFL MVP futures are bought in the summer, before injuries, ugly weather, and divisional football start erasing perfect projections. Every quarterback still owns his best possible season. Every offense still looks cleaner on paper than it will in December. The wager begins by deciding which ceilings are believable.
This year’s board is loaded with familiar power. Josh Allen sets the standard. Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford have already played at an MVP level. Drake Maye, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love offer younger, less settled cases with enormous statistical upside. The task is finding the quarterback whose talent, team, health, and price can all survive 17 games.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
The 2026 NFL MVP market starts with one immovable truth: this remains a quarterback award. Adrian Peterson remains the last non-quarterback winner, taking it in 2012. The AP’s 50 voters now rank five candidates on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale before the playoffs begin. That format rewards broad ballot strength alongside first-place support. Stafford beat Maye by five points last season. Allen beat Jackson despite losing the first-team All-Pro quarterback vote. Team value, record, and narrative can separate nearly identical statistical cases.
Allen deserves favorite status at +550, although the price leaves little room for failure. He generated 104.4 total EPA last season, threw for 3,668 yards, and added 579 rushing yards with 14 rushing touchdowns. That rushing production gives him an unmatched weekly résumé floor. Lamar sits at +800 after producing only 0.07 EPA per play across an injury-shortened season. Joe Burrow’s +850 price asks bettors to project a full recovery after eight games, 1,809 passing yards, and 17 touchdowns. Both possess MVP ceilings, but neither offers Allen’s durability profile.
Maye provides the strongest intersection of performance and price at +1100. He completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. His 8.9 yards per attempt led this group, while his 450 rushing yards added another path to weekly dominance. Maye also led qualified quarterbacks with 169.96 total EPA and 0.26 EPA per play. Next Gen Stats credited him with 99 completions under pressure and +203.1 passing EPA. New England then acquired A.J. Brown, giving Maye the isolation-winning receiver he lacked during a Super Bowl run.
Stafford remains dangerous at +1400 after winning the award with 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He generated 140.93 passing EPA while posting a 3.67% sack rate and 9.51-yard average target depth. That combination describes aggressive quarterbacking without drive-killing sacks. The concerns are obvious. Stafford enters his age-38 season, and another 46-touchdown year represents an extreme requirement. Voters also have a new story available in Maye, who nearly won before receiving a major supporting-cast upgrade.
The second tier contains more conditional paths. Patrick Mahomes produced 0.16 EPA per play despite a 22-touchdown, 11-interception line. He is also returning from ACL and LCL surgery. Justin Herbert absorbed 54 sacks and faced pressure on 43.3% of his dropbacks. Mike McDaniel’s quicker passing structure and healthier protection create an obvious rebound case. Dak Prescott already supplied 4,552 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 103.52 passing EPA. Dallas must transform those numbers into January relevance. His +1300 price depends heavily upon defensive improvement.
Jordan Love offers the best deeper statistical case at +1800. He finished second to Maye with 0.24 EPA per play, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, and threw only six interceptions. His limitation was volume: 3,381 yards and 23 touchdowns across 15 games cannot win this award. Trevor Lawrence reached 4,007 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, and nine rushing scores, but produced only 0.09 EPA per play. His +2200 case requires a genuine passing-efficiency leap. Jared Goff is my favorite longshot at +3500 after posting 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and 106.46 passing EPA.
The board ultimately returns to Maye. Allen owns the safest path, Stafford owns the strongest recent résumé, and Goff supplies the best long price. Maye already produced the field’s best advanced season and finished five points from winning. He then gained a receiver capable of converting difficult throws into touchdowns. His completion rate should regress, but greater target quality can offset that decline. At +1100, Maye offers enough probability, statistical ceiling, team strength, and price to become the early MVP selection.
Among the deeper prices, Goff deserves the strongest longshot consideration at +3500. He threw for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while generating 106.46 passing EPA. Those numbers already resemble an MVP finalist, especially with Detroit capable of returning to double-digit wins. His 6.80-yard average target depth shows how much the offense created after the catch, which adds structural risk. Goff also offers almost no rushing value, so his path requires elite protection and close to 40 passing touchdowns. However, +3500 provides enough room for that narrow route. If Detroit’s line stabilizes, Goff can pair enormous volume with one of the league’s deepest collections of playmakers. He is my preferred longshot behind Maye.
Best bet: Drake Maye to win NFL MVP (+1000)
Best longshot: Jared Goff to win NFL MVP (+3500)
