National League rivals wrap a four-game series Thursday afternoon, as the San Diego Padres visit the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park.
The Padres (50–52, 3rd NL West) swept the three-game series in San Diego last month, while the Braves (59–42, 1st NL East) have taken two of the first three contests in Atlanta after Wednesday’s 7–6 win.
Looking at the pitching probables, we’ve got San Diego right-hander Griffin Canning (1–8, 6.67 ERA) taking on Atlanta southpaw Chris Sale (10–6, 2.06 ERA).
First pitch is at 12:15 p.m. ET. The Braves enter as 1.5-run home favorites with -231 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Padres are +187 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U eight runs.
Editor’s Note: Padres SP Kyle Hart will now start today’s game vs. the Braves.
Padres vs. Braves Preview
San Diego Padres
The Padres have finally started showing signs of life in the batter’s box. After swinging wet newspapers for much of the season, they rank fifth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA since the beginning of July. The team is riding power surges from Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill — all of whom went deep in Tuesday’s 8–3 walloping of the Braves.
There’s just one problem. As San Diego’s run production has jumped, its prevention has plunged to new depths — the pitching staff ranks 27th in ERA since July 1 (5.56). The starting rotation has been a disaster all season, but the battered bullpen has been stretched thin, unable to provide its usual damage control. The compromised arm barn now faces a daunting task in backing up the struggling Griffin Canning.
The 30-year-old right-hander has gotten hammered for a 6.67 ERA (4.94 xERA) across 14 appearances (11 starts) in 2026. Canning heads into Thursday ranking in the bottom ten percent of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity, chase rate, and hard-hit rate. Facing the Braves on June 23, Canning coughed up four earned runs before he could complete an inning — though the Padres held on to win, 7–6, in extras.
Atlanta Braves
It’s been a roller coaster season for the Braves. After jumping out to the hottest start in baseball, they completely fell off a cliff for a month. Now, it seems they’re hitting another lift hill.
Even without Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta ranks sixth in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA since the beginning of July. Leading the charge is Drake Baldwin, who owns a sizzling 1.006 OPS with four home runs this month after struggling considerably upon his return from the injured list in mid-June. Matt Olson — who ranks seventh in MLB with 26 home runs — is pretty solid, too.
While the pitching staff, particularly the injury-ravaged bullpen, has stumbled over the past month, run prevention is the least of the Braves’ worries when Chris Sale is on the hill. The former Cy Young winner, 37, boasts a 2.06 ERA (3.31 xERA) and a 1.06 WHIP with 123 strikeouts in 18 starts (105 IP) in 2026. His Baseball Savant profile resembles the color scheme of his glove: solid red.
While Sale hasn’t faced the Padres this season, he’s coming off seven shutout frames with six strikeouts in his latest outing against the Rangers.
Padres vs. Braves Pick, Best Bet
Sometimes, a game really boils down to its pitching matchup. This is one of those times. The age-defying Sale is far more equipped to navigate a surging offense than the beleaguered Canning, who has already gotten tagged by the Braves this season. With the former Cy Young keeping the Padres at bay, Atlanta’s offense should jump on Canning early, attack San Diego’s strained bullpen, and take Thursday’s series finale in spread-covering fashion.
